Open Lending's (NASDAQ:LPRO) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock jumps 11% this past week

Open Lending Corporation (NASDAQ:LPRO) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last week. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. In that time the share price has melted like a snowball in the desert, down 85%. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$68m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Open Lending

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Open Lending saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 42% per year, over the last three years. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 46% average annual decrease in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Open Lending's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 30% in the last year, Open Lending shareholders lost 18%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Open Lending has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.