Hamilton Lane Incorporated Just Missed EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$125m revenue coming in 4.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.51 missed the mark badly, arriving some 46% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hamilton Lane after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Hamilton Lane are now predicting revenues of US$595.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 39% to US$4.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$604.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.47 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$116. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hamilton Lane at US$126 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$111. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Hamilton Lane'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 17% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.8% per year. So although Hamilton Lane is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$116, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hamilton Lane. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Hamilton Lane going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Hamilton Lane that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.