Why Affirm (AFRM) Is Up 16.1% After Renewing Its Amazon BNPL Deal Through 2031

• Earlier in December, Affirm Holdings renewed its buy-now-pay-later agreement with Amazon through January 2031 and expanded partnerships with Shopify in the U.K. and REVOLVE across Canada and the U.K., while management reported healthy holiday-quarter demand and stable delinquency trends.
• By publicly challenging third-party data pointing to weaker volumes and reiterating confidence in its credit performance, Affirm addressed key investor worries about the durability of its growth and risk management model.
• With this renewed Amazon agreement anchoring Affirm’s distribution, we’ll explore how the development reshapes the company’s broader investment narrative.

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Affirm Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Affirm, you have to believe its buy now, pay later model can scale profitably while keeping credit losses in check, even as competition and macro conditions evolve. The renewed Amazon deal and management’s rebuttal of weak-volume data directly reduce the near term risk of losing a key enterprise partner and help support the main catalyst of growing merchant adoption and consumer usage across channels.

The Amazon extension through January 2031 looks most relevant here, because it secures a major distribution pillar just as Affirm pushes deeper into international markets via Shopify in the U.K. and REVOLVE in Canada and the U.K. That visibility can matter for investors weighing strong recent earnings against concerns about valuation and the sustainability of current growth drivers.

Yet even with Amazon secured, investors still need to watch how exposed Affirm remains to U.S. consumer health and potential shifts in credit performance...

Read the full narrative on Affirm Holdings (it's free!)

Affirm Holdings' narrative projects $6.0 billion revenue and $756.6 million earnings by 2028. This requires 22.9% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $704 million earnings increase from $52.2 million today.

Uncover how Affirm Holdings' forecasts yield a $92.71 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nineteen Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$25 to US$140, showing how far apart views on Affirm can be. Against that backdrop, the renewed Amazon partnership and management’s comments on stable delinquencies give you one concrete lens on the company’s near term resilience and the risks to its growth story.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on Affirm Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 84% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Affirm Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Affirm Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Affirm Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Affirm Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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