Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.

OTCPK:ALSS.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.8b

Alsea. de Valuation

Is ALSS.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALSS.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALSS.F ($2.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.01)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALSS.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALSS.F?

Key metric: As ALSS.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALSS.F. This is calculated by dividing ALSS.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALSS.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13x
EarningsMex$2.88b
Market CapMex$37.40b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALSS.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALSS.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26x
DNUT Krispy Kreme
58.5x-20.2%US$1.7b
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
10.7x15.0%US$1.6b
CAKE Cheesecake Factory
20x15.4%US$2.5b
PZZA Papa John's International
14.6x10.7%US$1.4b
ALSS.F Alsea. de
13x26.5%US$37.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALSS.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (26.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALSS.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
ALSS.F 13.0xIndustry Avg. 23.2xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALSS.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (23.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALSS.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALSS.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ALSS.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALSS.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$2.20
US$3.58
+62.8%
15.5%US$4.82US$2.80n/a15
Dec ’25US$2.26
US$3.66
+61.9%
15.5%US$4.75US$2.76n/a15
Nov ’25US$2.48
US$3.81
+53.5%
13.8%US$4.86US$2.95n/a15
Oct ’25US$2.83
US$4.03
+42.2%
11.9%US$4.98US$3.30n/a14
Sep ’25US$2.75
US$4.03
+46.6%
11.9%US$4.98US$3.30n/a14
Aug ’25US$2.90
US$4.24
+46.4%
11.7%US$5.26US$3.49n/a14
Jul ’25US$3.31
US$4.56
+37.7%
10.3%US$5.42US$3.76n/a14
Jun ’25n/a
US$5.02
0%
10.2%US$5.96US$4.14n/a14
May ’25US$4.20
US$4.88
+16.3%
10.7%US$5.83US$3.96n/a13
Apr ’25US$4.95
US$4.56
-7.9%
13.8%US$5.89US$3.25n/a14
Mar ’25US$3.62
US$4.14
+14.3%
9.5%US$4.85US$3.16n/a16
Feb ’25US$4.00
US$3.91
-2.2%
9.8%US$4.66US$3.14n/a16
Jan ’25US$3.72
US$3.81
+2.3%
9.8%US$4.58US$3.09US$2.0816
Dec ’24US$3.50
US$3.79
+8.4%
11.7%US$4.65US$2.94US$2.2615
Nov ’24US$3.40
US$3.60
+5.8%
13.3%US$4.43US$2.45US$2.4815
Oct ’24n/a
US$3.38
0%
21.0%US$4.56US$2.22US$2.8314
Sep ’24n/a
US$3.45
0%
20.5%US$4.69US$2.29US$2.7515
Aug ’24US$3.56
US$3.41
-4.2%
18.9%US$4.74US$2.31US$2.9016
Jul ’24US$3.30
US$3.12
-5.5%
19.6%US$4.60US$2.15US$3.3116
Jun ’24n/a
US$3.00
0%
16.8%US$3.76US$2.10n/a16
May ’24US$2.67
US$2.90
+8.5%
17.0%US$3.74US$2.11US$4.2016
Apr ’24US$2.33
US$2.68
+15.4%
16.6%US$3.72US$1.93US$4.9516
Mar ’24n/a
US$2.53
0%
17.5%US$3.54US$1.73US$3.6215
Feb ’24US$2.40
US$2.55
+6.2%
17.5%US$3.57US$1.82US$4.0015
Jan ’24US$1.90
US$2.44
+28.2%
16.8%US$3.38US$1.72US$3.7216

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/06 05:11
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. is covered by 30 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Karla Beatriz PenaActinver Case de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.
Benjamin TheurerBarclays
Miguel Ulloa SuárezBBVA Corporate and Investment Bank