Yum China Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:YUMC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$17.9b

Yum China Holdings Valuation

Is YUMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YUMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YUMC ($47.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($50.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YUMC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YUMC?

Key metric: As YUMC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YUMC. This is calculated by dividing YUMC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YUMC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20x
EarningsUS$893.00m
Market CapUS$17.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YUMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YUMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.3x
DRI Darden Restaurants
18.9x8.2%US$19.7b
DPZ Domino's Pizza
27.4x5.9%US$15.7b
TXRH Texas Roadhouse
33.3x12.4%US$13.0b
QSR Restaurant Brands International
17.6x10.9%US$31.1b
YUMC Yum China Holdings
20x8.8%US$17.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YUMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x) compared to the peer average (24.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YUMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings
3.7xn/aUS$6.21m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
CCL Carnival Corporation &
n/a19.8%US$24.00
No more companies available in this PE range
YUMC 20.0xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YUMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YUMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YUMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20x
Fair PE Ratio23.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YUMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YUMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$47.07
US$56.22
+19.4%
16.1%US$76.00US$35.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$45.07
US$51.18
+13.5%
21.2%US$76.00US$35.00n/a25
Oct ’25US$47.35
US$46.63
-1.5%
19.5%US$76.00US$35.00n/a23
Sep ’25US$33.81
US$45.21
+33.7%
20.0%US$76.00US$35.00n/a23
Aug ’25US$30.05
US$49.92
+66.1%
21.6%US$76.00US$30.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$30.54
US$52.59
+72.2%
18.7%US$76.00US$30.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$35.76
US$53.39
+49.3%
17.6%US$76.00US$34.00n/a24
May ’25US$35.92
US$54.59
+52.0%
17.8%US$76.00US$34.00n/a24
Apr ’25US$40.19
US$56.67
+41.0%
16.8%US$80.00US$33.80n/a24
Mar ’25US$42.95
US$57.44
+33.7%
17.0%US$80.00US$33.80n/a24
Feb ’25US$35.47
US$59.52
+67.8%
18.7%US$80.00US$30.20n/a25
Jan ’25US$42.43
US$63.32
+49.2%
13.3%US$80.00US$43.60n/a25
Dec ’24US$43.73
US$64.47
+47.4%
12.9%US$80.00US$43.60n/a24
Nov ’24US$44.56
US$68.24
+53.1%
12.3%US$80.00US$43.60US$45.0723
Oct ’24US$55.72
US$73.54
+32.0%
8.3%US$84.00US$50.00US$47.3524
Sep ’24US$54.52
US$72.66
+33.3%
8.2%US$84.00US$50.00US$33.8125
Aug ’24US$57.37
US$72.57
+26.5%
7.6%US$84.00US$53.00US$30.0524
Jul ’24US$56.50
US$73.75
+30.5%
7.6%US$84.00US$53.00US$30.5424
Jun ’24US$57.13
US$73.04
+27.9%
8.9%US$84.00US$53.00US$35.7625
May ’24US$62.07
US$69.72
+12.3%
11.6%US$89.00US$44.00US$35.9224
Apr ’24US$63.39
US$69.72
+10.0%
11.6%US$89.00US$44.00US$40.1924
Mar ’24US$60.54
US$68.69
+13.5%
12.6%US$89.00US$44.00US$42.9524
Feb ’24US$62.23
US$64.42
+3.5%
13.9%US$84.00US$38.00US$35.4722
Jan ’24US$54.65
US$60.12
+10.0%
14.2%US$84.00US$38.00US$42.4323
Dec ’23US$54.78
US$59.15
+8.0%
14.1%US$84.00US$38.00US$43.7323
Nov ’23US$43.06
US$55.98
+30.0%
16.5%US$84.00US$29.60US$44.5623

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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