Vail Resorts, Inc.

NYSE:MTN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.8b

Vail Resorts Valuation

Is MTN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTN ($184.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($244.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTN?

Key metric: As MTN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MTN. This is calculated by dividing MTN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MTN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio30x
EarningsUS$230.41m
Market CapUS$6.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average74.8x
FUN Six Flags Entertainment
197.2x89.0%US$4.5b
PLNT Planet Fitness
53.3x12.9%US$8.5b
LTH Life Time Group Holdings
35.6x24.2%US$5.0b
PRKS United Parks & Resorts
13x8.3%US$3.1b
MTN Vail Resorts
30x12.6%US$6.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (64.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings
3.7xn/aUS$5.82m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
MTN 30.0xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies15PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio30x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$184.24
US$195.42
+6.1%
12.8%US$250.00US$155.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$165.79
US$196.36
+18.4%
13.2%US$250.00US$155.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$173.07
US$196.36
+13.5%
13.2%US$250.00US$155.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$181.70
US$205.45
+13.1%
15.0%US$259.00US$161.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$176.56
US$205.45
+16.4%
15.0%US$259.00US$161.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$175.43
US$205.45
+17.1%
15.0%US$259.00US$161.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$188.72
US$238.27
+26.3%
9.2%US$272.00US$201.00n/a11
May ’25US$191.17
US$240.96
+26.0%
8.3%US$272.00US$201.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$222.10
US$244.54
+10.1%
8.0%US$272.00US$201.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$230.55
US$258.50
+12.1%
9.8%US$296.00US$217.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$222.05
US$259.10
+16.7%
9.5%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$213.47
US$261.40
+22.5%
9.4%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$221.61
US$265.80
+19.9%
9.4%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$211.17
US$266.80
+26.3%
8.8%US$296.00US$223.00US$165.7910
Oct ’24US$221.89
US$266.80
+20.2%
8.8%US$296.00US$223.00US$173.0710
Sep ’24US$227.90
US$255.67
+12.2%
9.5%US$300.00US$223.00US$181.709
Aug ’24US$236.43
US$255.67
+8.1%
9.5%US$300.00US$223.00US$176.569
Jul ’24US$251.76
US$262.20
+4.1%
11.5%US$321.00US$223.00US$175.4310
Jun ’24US$247.39
US$256.70
+3.8%
13.7%US$333.00US$220.00US$188.7210
May ’24US$243.59
US$275.91
+13.3%
25.2%US$468.00US$220.00US$191.1711
Apr ’24US$233.68
US$277.09
+18.6%
25.0%US$468.00US$220.00US$222.1011
Mar ’24US$235.19
US$278.80
+18.5%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$230.5510
Feb ’24US$262.31
US$278.80
+6.3%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$222.0510
Jan ’24US$238.35
US$278.80
+17.0%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$213.4710
Dec ’23US$258.83
US$270.70
+4.6%
17.6%US$380.00US$224.00US$221.6110
Nov ’23US$220.74
US$270.70
+22.6%
17.6%US$380.00US$224.00US$211.1710

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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