Vail Resorts Valuation

Is MTN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MTN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MTN ($183.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($231.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MTN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MTN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MTN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11x
PEG Ratio1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MTN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MTN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.6x
PLNT Planet Fitness
45.2x13.5%US$6.7b
FUN Six Flags Entertainment
42.3x43.3%US$5.3b
PRKS United Parks & Resorts
15.4x9.4%US$3.7b
LTH Life Time Group Holdings
55.6x28.6%US$3.9b
MTN Vail Resorts
24.8x13.3%US$6.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MTN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the peer average (36.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MTN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MTN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (19.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MTN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MTN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.8x
Fair PE Ratio21.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MTN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MTN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$183.01
US$205.45
+12.3%
15.0%US$259.00US$161.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$175.43
US$205.45
+17.1%
15.0%US$259.00US$161.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$188.72
US$238.27
+26.3%
9.2%US$272.00US$201.00n/a11
May ’25US$191.17
US$240.96
+26.0%
8.3%US$272.00US$201.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$222.10
US$244.54
+10.1%
8.0%US$272.00US$201.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$230.55
US$258.50
+12.1%
9.8%US$296.00US$217.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$222.05
US$259.10
+16.7%
9.5%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$213.47
US$261.40
+22.5%
9.4%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$221.61
US$265.80
+19.9%
9.4%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$211.17
US$266.80
+26.3%
8.8%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Oct ’24US$221.89
US$266.80
+20.2%
8.8%US$296.00US$223.00n/a10
Sep ’24US$227.90
US$255.67
+12.2%
9.5%US$300.00US$223.00n/a9
Aug ’24US$236.43
US$255.67
+8.1%
9.5%US$300.00US$223.00n/a9
Jul ’24US$251.76
US$262.20
+4.1%
11.5%US$321.00US$223.00US$175.4310
Jun ’24US$247.39
US$256.70
+3.8%
13.7%US$333.00US$220.00US$188.7210
May ’24US$243.59
US$275.91
+13.3%
25.2%US$468.00US$220.00US$191.1711
Apr ’24US$233.68
US$277.09
+18.6%
25.0%US$468.00US$220.00US$222.1011
Mar ’24US$235.19
US$278.80
+18.5%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$230.5510
Feb ’24US$262.31
US$278.80
+6.3%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$222.0510
Jan ’24US$238.35
US$278.80
+17.0%
16.1%US$380.00US$232.00US$213.4710
Dec ’23US$258.83
US$270.70
+4.6%
17.6%US$380.00US$224.00US$221.6110
Nov ’23US$220.74
US$270.70
+22.6%
17.6%US$380.00US$224.00US$211.1710
Oct ’23US$215.64
US$273.36
+26.8%
16.9%US$380.00US$224.00US$221.8911
Sep ’23US$222.76
US$292.09
+31.1%
13.4%US$383.00US$217.00US$227.9011
Aug ’23US$238.59
US$292.09
+22.4%
13.4%US$383.00US$217.00US$236.4311
Jul ’23US$223.15
US$294.82
+32.1%
13.8%US$383.00US$217.00US$251.7611

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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