Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Q3 Results and Bluegreen Integration Progress

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) just posted its third-quarter 2025 results, showing contract sales climbed by 17% and progress continued on integrating Bluegreen. Management reiterated full-year guidance and shared updates on returning cash to shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Hilton Grand Vacations.

Hilton Grand Vacations’ momentum hasn’t gone unnoticed. After announcing upbeat Q3 results, the stock’s share price dipped roughly 4% over the past month but still posts a healthy 9% year-to-date gain. Over the longer haul, total shareholder return sits at 11.5% for one year and a robust 52.9% across five years, reflecting durable gains as the company continues buybacks and delivers on its integration strategy.

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With shares pulling back even as the company delivers healthy growth and analysts see further upside, investors are left wondering if Hilton Grand Vacations is undervalued today or if the market has already priced in the next wave of gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 21.7% Undervalued

If you compare Hilton Grand Vacations’ last close price of $41.85 to the fair value of $53.44 from the most popular narrative, the numbers suggest a sizable upside. That sets up a valuation case driven by operational transformation and future profitability projections, which is worth a closer look.

Operational efficiency initiatives and technology enhancements, such as advanced prescreening, digital marketing, and execution-focused sales strategies, are increasing volume per guest (VPG), reducing cost per tour, and expanding real estate margins. These factors are expected to support continued net margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s driving this valuation? The narrative points to significant improvements from upgraded technology and streamlined operations, but the notable element is the ambitious forecast for profit and cash flow growth. Interested in which assumptions make the difference? The full narrative details the numbers and discussions influencing this target price.

Result: Fair Value of $53.44 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent bad debt risk and slow new owner growth could challenge Hilton Grand Vacations’ optimistic outlook if economic conditions soften or if demand wanes.

Find out about the key risks to this Hilton Grand Vacations narrative.

Build Your Own Hilton Grand Vacations Narrative

If you have a different perspective, or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own personalized take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Hilton Grand Vacations research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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