Genius Sports (GENI): Exploring Valuation After NFL Media Deal, Upbeat Revenue Guidance, and Q3 Results

Genius Sports (GENI) shares jumped almost 9% this week after the company raised its full-year revenue forecast and announced a new media partnership with the NFL. Investors are paying close attention to these latest business moves.

See our latest analysis for Genius Sports.

Genius Sports has seen increased volatility lately, with the share price slipping nearly 30% over the past three months. Momentum took a hit during October’s market pullback, but upbeat revenue guidance and a headline NFL partnership helped the stock rebound. While its 1-year total shareholder return is just under flat at -2.1%, long-term holders are still up an impressive 97% over three years. This highlights just how much sentiment has shifted, as investors seem to be weighing current losses against longer-term growth potential.

If these moves in sports media pique your interest, it could be the perfect time to broaden your investing scope and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares popping after revised guidance and a major NFL media deal, the big question now is whether Genius Sports is still undervalued at current levels, or if the market has already taken future growth potential into account.

Most Popular Narrative: 38.1% Undervalued

The narrative’s fair value estimate stands at $14.76 per share, notably above Genius Sports’s last close of $9.14. The story behind this gap starts with aggressive growth assumptions and the platform’s powerful data rights portfolio.

Ongoing expansion of global sports betting legalization and regulation, particularly in large markets like the U.S., Europe, Brazil and other emerging regions, is increasing the addressable market for official sports data and media platforms. This positions Genius Sports for durable multi-year revenue growth and geographic diversification.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how analysts landed on such a high value? The crux of their calculation is bold profit forecasts, a rich earnings multiple, and hefty long-term revenue bets. Wondering what projections turn this sports data provider into a market phenom? The details might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $14.76 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying competition in sports data and the potential for tougher licensing terms with major leagues could present challenges to Genius Sports’ long-term trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Genius Sports narrative.

Another View: When Valuation Ratios Signal Caution

While the narrative points to upside, the company’s price-to-sales ratio of 3.6x appears significantly higher than the industry average of 1.6x and the peer group’s 1.5x. Even when compared to its own fair ratio of 1.4x, the stock trades at a substantial premium. Does this indicate a hidden risk or untapped potential?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Genius Sports Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to take a hands-on approach, you can craft your own perspective on Genius Sports in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Genius Sports.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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