Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (NYSE:GBTG) Annual Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a sad week for Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (NYSE:GBTG), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$6.38 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Revenues of US$1.9b arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.50, an impressive 41% smaller than what broker models predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Global Business Travel Group

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Global Business Travel Group are now predicting revenues of US$2.20b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a decent 19% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$0.39 on a statutory basis. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.048 in 2023. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$8.33, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Global Business Travel Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.70 and the most bearish at US$6.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Global Business Travel Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 19% annualised growth until the end of 2023. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 3.2% annual decline over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So it looks like Global Business Travel Group is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Global Business Travel Group to become unprofitable next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Global Business Travel Group analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Global Business Travel Group (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.