Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Overview
Owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for CMG from our risk checks.
CMG Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 295 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$45
FV
29.2% undervalued intrinsic discount10.15%
Revenue growth p.a.
133
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$31.86 |
| 52 Week High | US$58.42 |
| 52 Week Low | US$28.04 |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| 1 Month Change | -5.60% |
| 3 Month Change | -3.28% |
| 1 Year Change | -38.53% |
| 3 Year Change | -23.21% |
| 5 Year Change | 9.46% |
| Change since IPO | 3,520.45% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
CMG: 2026 International Expansion Plans Will Support Higher P E Multiple
Analysts have trimmed the Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate by about $0.52 to $42.88, reflecting a mix of lower average price targets and a slightly higher discount rate, even as revenue growth expectations and future P/E assumptions remain broadly steady across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill highlights a split between analysts who see current levels as an opportunity and those who are more cautious on the company’s execution and growth trajectory.Seeking Alpha • Jun 04
Chipotle: The Trough Is Not The Trend
Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill is rated Buy, with the market undervaluing its recovery potential at ~$28/share versus a DCF-derived intrinsic value of $40.48. I see current headwinds as cyclical, not structural, with operational catalysts—HEAP equipment rollout and loyalty program enhancements—already visible and measurable. CMG’s unique company-owned, non-franchise model amplifies both downside volatility and upside leverage in recoveries, directly benefiting shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 15
CMG: 2026 Menu And Unit Expansion Plans Will Support Higher P E Multiple
Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower to reflect an updated fair value of about $43.40. Analysts cite modest tweaks to discount rate assumptions, slightly softer revenue growth expectations, a small improvement in profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple, informed by a mix of recent target cuts and upgrades across the Street.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 06
CMG: 2026 International Expansion Plans Will Support Higher P E Multiple
Analysts have trimmed the Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate by about $0.52 to $42.88, reflecting a mix of lower average price targets and a slightly higher discount rate, even as revenue growth expectations and future P/E assumptions remain broadly steady across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill highlights a split between analysts who see current levels as an opportunity and those who are more cautious on the company’s execution and growth trajectory.Seeking Alpha • Jun 04
Chipotle: The Trough Is Not The Trend
Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill is rated Buy, with the market undervaluing its recovery potential at ~$28/share versus a DCF-derived intrinsic value of $40.48. I see current headwinds as cyclical, not structural, with operational catalysts—HEAP equipment rollout and loyalty program enhancements—already visible and measurable. CMG’s unique company-owned, non-franchise model amplifies both downside volatility and upside leverage in recoveries, directly benefiting shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 15
CMG: 2026 Menu And Unit Expansion Plans Will Support Higher P E Multiple
Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been adjusted slightly lower to reflect an updated fair value of about $43.40. Analysts cite modest tweaks to discount rate assumptions, slightly softer revenue growth expectations, a small improvement in profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple, informed by a mix of recent target cuts and upgrades across the Street.Narrative Update • Apr 26
CMG: 2026 Menu Initiatives Are Expected To Support Higher P E Multiple
Chipotle Mexican Grill's updated analyst price target reflects a modest trim of fair value to $43.66, with analysts broadly fine-tuning their models as they weigh slightly higher discount rates, adjusted long term P/E assumptions, and a recent wave of small downward target revisions across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Chipotle Mexican Grill points to a period of recalibration, with many firms trimming price targets by small increments and a few highlighting more constructive long term views.
New Narrative • Apr 21
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Reports Resilient FY 2025 Earnings Despite Margin Pressures and Heavy Capital Returns
Analyst: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) Executive Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. delivered a solid financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025, with total revenue rising to $11.93 billion, reflecting +5.4% YoY growth driven primarily by strong food and beverage sales.Narrative Update • Apr 11
CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Support Higher P E Multiple
Analysts trimmed their Chipotle Mexican Grill price target by about $0.50 to reflect slightly lower fair value, a modestly higher discount rate, and marginally softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partly offset by a higher future P/E multiple supported by recent mixed but generally constructive research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill reflects a mix of cautious fine tuning on price targets and supportive views on the business model, management, and long term growth potential.Narrative Update • Mar 27
CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Sustain Elevated P E Multiple
The analyst price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill has been trimmed by about $0.07 to reflect slightly lower modeled fair value, even as analysts highlight modest improvements in revenue growth, profit margin assumptions, and a still elevated future P/E, informed by a mix of recent target cuts, fresh Buy initiations, and sector-wide re-rating work for 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle Mexican Grill reflects an active debate around how much investors should pay for the company given mixed sector trends, shifting consumer behavior, and company specific execution questions.Narrative Update • Mar 13
CMG: 2026 Sales Initiatives And Buybacks Will Support Multiple Expansion
Analysts made a small upward adjustment to their Chipotle price target, moving it by about $0.33, as they weighed newly bullish views tied to potential sales drivers and multiple expansion against a recent wave of modest target trims from other firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Chipotle shows a split view, with some firms highlighting long term growth drivers and others focusing on consumer headwinds and execution risk.Narrative Update • Feb 26
CMG: 2026 Marketing Firepower And Buybacks Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their Chipotle price target to about $44. This reflects slightly lower assumed discount rates and a modestly higher future P/E multiple, along with fine-tuned revenue growth and margin expectations.Narrative Update • Feb 09
CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion And Share Repurchases Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts now see slightly lower upside for Chipotle, trimming the price target in line with a modest reduction in fair value to about $44.24 per share after reassessing the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Chipotle Mexican Grill has become more finely balanced, with several small downward price target revisions offset by a cluster of earlier target increases and a few rating changes.Narrative Update • Jan 25
CMG: 2026 Traffic Recovery And Unit Expansion Will Drive Balanced Risk Reward
Analysts have nudged their Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate higher to about $45 per share from roughly $44, citing a slightly lower discount rate, modest tweaks to long term revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple that reflect recent shifts in Street price targets and mixed but engaged research coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Chipotle Mexican Grill, with price targets moving in both directions and opinions divided on how quickly the company can work through current traffic and macro pressures.Narrative Update • Jan 11
CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion And Traffic Recovery Efforts Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted the Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value estimate slightly, with the price target moving from US$43.18 to US$44.12. This reflects modest tweaks to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions after a mix of target cuts on macro and traffic headwinds, as well as fresh target hikes tied to updated 2026 restaurant sector outlooks.Narrative Update • Dec 18
CMG: 2026 Unit Expansion Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Near Term Traffic Headwinds
Analysts have modestly reduced their average price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill by about $10 per share to the mid $40s, citing weaker than expected Q3 traffic and comp trends, macro driven consumer softness, and lowered same store sales guidance, even as they highlight longer term benefits from menu innovation, value focused marketing, and continued unit growth. Analyst Commentary Analysts broadly agree that Chipotle is navigating a tougher operating backdrop, but they differ on how quickly the brand can reaccelerate traffic and comps and how much of the long term growth story remains intact at current valuation levels.Narrative Update • Dec 04
CMG: Robust 2026 Unit Expansion Is Expected To Drive Long Term Upside
The Analyst Price Target for Chipotle Mexican Grill has been cut meaningfully, with analysts trimming expectations by roughly $10 per share as persistent macro headwinds, softer traffic, and repeated same store sales guidance cuts temper the near term outlook, despite confidence in the longer term unit growth story. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary reflects a more cautious stance on Chipotle in the near term, with widespread price target reductions but a generally constructive view on the multiyear unit growth and margin opportunity.Narrative Update • Nov 20
CMG: Robust Unit Expansion Plans Will Lead to Improved Performance
Analysts have lowered their average price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill, cutting it from approximately $45.09 to $43.18 per share. Ongoing macroeconomic pressures and softer same-store sales trends continue to weigh on the company's near-term outlook.Analysis Article • Nov 07
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Stocks Pounded By 25% But Not Lagging Market On Growth Or Pricing
The Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ( NYSE:CMG ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a...Narrative Update • Nov 01
CMG: Share Repurchases And Menu Revamps Will Drive Stronger Performance Ahead
Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been lowered significantly, dropping from approximately $54 to about $45. Analysts cite ongoing traffic challenges, softer same-store sales growth, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds following disappointing third-quarter results.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance
Chipotle Mexican Grill's analyst price target has been reduced from approximately $56.94 to $54.15. Analysts cite near-term industry headwinds, including choppy demand, softer sales trends, and cautious sector outlooks as factors driving the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance
Analysts have lowered their price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill to approximately $56.94 from about $57.75. This modest reduction reflects tempered revenue growth expectations, despite recent performance improvements and ongoing industry challenges.Narrative Update • Sep 10
Restaurant Expansion In Mexico And Europe Will Boost Performance
Analysts modestly lowered Chipotle's consensus price target to $57.75, citing disappointing Q2 results, macro headwinds, and heightened competitive pressures, though some remain constructive on resilient demand, recent menu innovation, and the company's long-term growth outlook. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite improved risk/reward following a 31% YTD selloff, with expectations that market pessimism regarding same-store-sales is overly priced in.Analysis Article • Aug 01
The Price Is Right For Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Even After Diving 26%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ( NYSE:CMG ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period...Analysis Article • Jul 26
Analysts Are Updating Their Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results
It's been a mediocre week for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. ( NYSE:CMG ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to...Analysis Article • Jul 14
Is Now The Time To Put Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) On Your Watchlist?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Seeking Alpha • Apr 22
Chipotle Q1 Preview: Tariffs Hurt Them (Deep Dive)
Summary Chipotle's stock has declined around 20% over the past year, driven by decelerating same-store sales growth and increasing competition from companies like Sweetgreen and CAVA. The company's high forward P/E ratio of 37, a 173% premium to the sector median, suggests it is overpriced given its current performance and outlook. Trade war impacts, particularly on avocado imports, are expected to further strain Chipotle's margins, which are already pressured by high food and labor costs. Despite potential growth from international expansion and new technologies, these factors are unlikely to offset near-term headwinds, making Chipotle a strong sell. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 19
Chipotle: Dark Pool Buys And Long-Term Growth Make It A Buy
Summary Chipotle's dual focus on digital innovation and rapid expansion is driving significant growth, with digital sales now making up 37% of total revenue. The company's strategic initiatives, like the Chipotlane system and limited-time offerings, are boosting sales and enhancing customer loyalty. Valuation analysis using a DCF model shows a fair price per share around $51, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile with strong growth potential. Despite risks like inflation and rapid expansion costs, Chipotle's consistent revenue growth, improved margins, and solid cash flow make it a compelling long-term investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
Chipotle: Rare Opportunity To Buy At A Truly Attractive Price
Summary Chipotle's stock is now a 'Buy' due to attractive valuation, strong fundamentals, and significant growth potential despite the recent CEO transition. Q4-24 results showed impressive revenue growth, strong same-store sales, and continued unit expansion, maintaining high restaurant-level profitability. Market expectations for 2025 are low, setting up the potential for multiple 'Beat & Raises'. Chipotle is nearly 20% below June 2024 highs, trading at a valuation that's historically been a very attractive entry point. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 05
Chipotle: Tariff Fears Overblown, Dips Are Tasty For Long-Term Investors
Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s consistent sales growth and strong comparable sales, up 5.4% in Q4 and 7.4% for the year, support long-term investment. Despite short-term risks from tariffs and ingredient costs, Chipotle's strategic price increases and cost controls bolster its financial health. The company's aggressive expansion plans, including 315-345 new stores and significant share repurchases, signal confidence in sustained growth. While CMG shares are expensive, the valuation has improved, making it a potential buy for long-term investors if prices dip further into the $50s. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 21
Chipotle: It Still Has Fuel In The Tank
Summary Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock has shown strong performance since our initial bullish rating in September 2022, with an 80%+ surge, despite recent underperformance in mid-to-late 2024. The company's robust sales growth, margin expansion, and strategic price hikes indicate solid fundamentals, suggesting continued top-line growth and moderate cost increases. Our DCF model values Chipotle's stock at $68.68 per share, indicating it is undervalued by approximately 19.4%, a case supported by Chipotle's RSI. While risks exist, we remain bullish. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 20
Chipotle: In A Tough Spot As Price Hikes May Trigger Further Sales Deterioration
Summary Chipotle is a stock to sell, as the company faces tremendous operational risk following a decision to increase prices in December. CMG has already triggered customer backlash this year on rising menu prices and smaller portion sizes. Comparable sales growth trends decelerated in Q3 and were the weakest reading in four quarters, while fast-casual peers like CAVA achieved accelerating performance. The company is facing pressure from fast-food chains below the price spectrum, as McDonald's extends its $5 Meal Deal promotion to capture value-conscious consumers. Chipotle trades at a very unappetizing ~55x forward P/E ratio, which is a heady premium for a company with tepid growth prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 25
It's Time To Get Mexican Food: Chipotle Is A Buy (Technical Analysis)
Summary CMG exhibits bullish price action, trading above its upward sloping 30-week EMA and breaking out of a four-month consolidation zone. Momentum indicators, both short-term and long-term, are bullish as shown by the Percentage Price Oscillator readings. Volume analysis suggests institutional accumulation, despite some bearish-looking volume bars, indicating potential undervaluation and buying at lows. Relative strength is improving, showing CMG outperforming the S&P 500 since mid-July, though it's the weakest part of the bullish thesis. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 07
Chipotle: Both The Business And The Investment Are Very Simple
Summary Chipotle's long-term growth is driven by store expansion, comparable sales growth, and operational excellence, targeting 7,000 locations and $4 million in per-restaurant sales. Despite near-term headwinds like the CEO's departure and portion size backlash, CMG's strong brand and execution ensure continued performance and resilience. Valuation suggests a 16.5% annual return over the next 7-8 years, with a 'Strong Buy' below 35x, 'Buy' at 40x, and 'Hold' above. Currently trading at 44x '25 earnings warrants a 'Hold', but the long-term trajectory remains solid with potential 20% earnings growth annually. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| CMG | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| 1Y | -38.5% | -2.9% | 23.3% |
Return vs Industry: CMG underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -2.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CMG underperformed the US Market which returned 23.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CMG volatility | |
|---|---|
| CMG Average Weekly Movement | 4.7% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 7.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: CMG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: CMG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 130,301 | Scott Boatwright | www.chipotle.com |
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids’s meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| CMG fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$41.83b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.45b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$12.14b |
28.1x
P/E Ratio3.4x
P/S RatioIs CMG overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CMG income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$12.14b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$7.33b |
| Gross Profit | US$4.81b |
| Other Expenses | US$3.36b |
| Earnings | US$1.45b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Jul 29, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.13 |
| Gross Margin | 39.65% |
| Net Profit Margin | 11.96% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did CMG perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/17 04:08 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/17 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 56 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| David Tarantino | Baird |
| Jeffrey Bernstein | Barclays |