Update shared on10 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.87%Analysts modestly lowered Chipotle's consensus price target to $57.75, citing disappointing Q2 results, macro headwinds, and heightened competitive pressures, though some remain constructive on resilient demand, recent menu innovation, and the company's long-term growth outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite improved risk/reward following a 31% YTD selloff, with expectations that market pessimism regarding same-store-sales is overly priced in.
- Several target reductions were attributed to Q2 results falling below expectations, driven by macro volatility, consumer sentiment bottoming in May, and noisy industry comps due to seasonal spending patterns.
- Some analysts see upside potential from new menu initiatives (e.g., honey chicken), indicating more durable demand and a possible low point for traffic and comp sales in Q2.
- Bullish views are supported by Chipotle's strong value proposition, although messaging this value to consumers could be improved.
- While competitive pressures from grocers and convenience stores are rising and defending traffic share has become harder, analysts view Chipotle's disciplined growth, strong unit economics, and brand relevance as fundamental strengths supporting long-term prospects.
What's in the News
- Chipotle will relaunch Carne Asada in the U.S. and Canada for a limited time, following strong customer demand.
- "Build-Your-Own Chipotle," a customizable family meal for 4-6 people, is being introduced as a digital-exclusive offering.
- The company has partnered with Zipline to pilot drone delivery in the Dallas area, with plans to expand service.
- Chipotle ran an AR-based "AvoLotto" promotion on Snapchat, awarding free guac for a year and offering additional loyalty rewards.
- Guidance for 2025 expects flat full-year comparable restaurant sales, 315-345 new restaurant openings (over 80% with Chipotlane), and a new $400 million share repurchase authorization.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Chipotle Mexican Grill
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $58.26 to $57.75.
- The Net Profit Margin for Chipotle Mexican Grill remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 14.27% to 14.19%.
- The Future P/E for Chipotle Mexican Grill remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 40.66x to 40.58x.
Disclaimer
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