Is Carnival Stock Attractive After Fleet Revitalization and Mixed Price Moves in 2025?

• Ever wondered if Carnival Corporation & is still a bargain or if its recent price action has changed the picture? Let’s take a look at the story behind the numbers.
• Carnival Corporation & shares are up 156.1% over three years, but have dipped 2.5% in the last week and are down 13.6% over the past month. This hints at shifting perceptions among investors.
• News about Carnival’s ongoing fleet revitalization and persistent consumer demand for cruises continues to make headlines. This fuels optimism while also raising questions about how long the rebound can last. Ongoing scrutiny on macroeconomic factors such as fuel costs and travel demand adds layers of nuance to the company’s recent moves.
• Right now, Carnival Corporation & scores a 5 out of 6 on our valuation checks, signaling potential value. Next, we’ll explore the standard methods used to analyze its true worth. Later, we will look at a different approach to gauge valuation that could provide useful insights.

Carnival Corporation & delivered 1.2% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.

Approach 1: Carnival Corporation & Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model values a business by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those values back to today, giving a present-day estimate of what the company could be worth. This approach provides a data-driven look at intrinsic value based on realistic future performance rather than just market sentiment.

For Carnival Corporation &, the DCF model uses recent free cash flow of about $1.46 billion and extends those figures based on analyst forecasts and longer-term estimates. Analysts expect strong growth, with forecasted free cash flows climbing as high as $3.94 billion by 2029. After that, projections continue for several years using a two-stage method that reflects a gradually moderating growth rate. All cash flow figures used in this model are stated in US dollars.

The DCF model estimates Carnival’s intrinsic value at $30.58 per share. This represents a 16.8% discount to the current share price, suggesting the stock is currently undervalued from a cash-flow perspective.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Carnival Corporation & is undervalued by 16.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 928 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carnival Corporation &.

Approach 2: Carnival Corporation & Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used metric for valuing profitable companies like Carnival Corporation & because it links the company’s share price to its actual earnings. This makes it a straightforward way to see whether investors are paying a fair amount for the profits the company generates. Generally, companies with strong growth prospects or lower business risks tend to command higher PE multiples. In contrast, slower growers or riskier companies trade at lower ratios.

Carnival Corporation & currently trades at a PE ratio of 12.6x. This is significantly below the Hospitality industry average of 21.4x and also under the peer group average of 20.6x. These figures suggest that the stock may be trading at a discount compared to competitors and the broader industry. However, comparing multiples directly to industry peers does not always tell the whole story, given differences in growth, risk profiles, and profitability.

This is where Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” adds value. The Fair Ratio for Carnival Corporation & stands at 27.5x. This proprietary metric gauges what a reasonable PE multiple should be after adjusting for company-specific factors such as earnings growth outlook, margins, risk levels, industry dynamics, and the company’s overall market cap. Because it is uniquely tailored to Carnival’s overall profile, the Fair Ratio gives a more holistic picture than a simple peer or industry comparison.

With Carnival Corporation & trading at 12.6x, well below its Fair Ratio of 27.5x, the stock appears undervalued using this lens.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Carnival Corporation & Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are your personalized storylines for a company, connecting what you believe about its future, such as revenue, profit margins, and fair value, to actual financial forecasts, all within one framework.

With Narratives, you are not just relying on stock price movements or generic ratios. Instead, you define the story behind the numbers and instantly see how your expectations compare to other investors. Narratives link a company's unique situation, prospects, and risks to a fair value, making investing more about your conviction and less about market noise.

Simply Wall St’s Community page lets millions of investors share and update their Narratives in real time as new news or results are released. By comparing your Narrative's fair value to today's share price, you can quickly judge whether a stock like Carnival Corporation & looks like a buy, hold, or sell for you, based on your own logic.

For example, some see Carnival’s record bookings and expansion into private destinations supporting a fair value near $43, while others point to risks like high debt and geopolitical uncertainty, seeing fair value closer to $24. Narratives put your perspective at the heart of every investment decision.

Do you think there's more to the story for Carnival Corporation &? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com