Carnival (CCL): Evaluating Valuation on Record Q3 Profits and Upgraded Guidance

Momentum around Carnival Corporation (CCL) picked up after the company reported record adjusted net income for Q3 2025, which outpaced pre-pandemic levels. The company's decision to raise its full-year guidance has captured the attention of investors looking for operational resilience and growth.

See our latest analysis for Carnival Corporation &.

Carnival’s shares have seen plenty of action this year, as optimism returned following its robust Q3 results and improved guidance. While the short-term share price return has cooled, down 9% over the past month and 19% over the last quarter, the company’s three-year total shareholder return of nearly 158% tells a much more impressive long-term turnaround story, with recent analyst commentary reinforcing the positive momentum.

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With record profits outpacing expectations and a valuation that still sits at a discount to analyst targets, the real question is whether Carnival’s current share price presents a genuine buying opportunity or if future growth is already fully factored in.

Most Popular Narrative: 27.8% Undervalued

With Carnival Corporation & priced at $25.78 at last close and the consensus fair value at $35.70, the valuation narrative signals a significant gap that has caught the attention of market-watchers. The stage is set for bullish optimism, supported by strategic business moves and revenue growth momentum.

Carnival's targeted expansion of private destinations, such as Celebration Key (launching July 2025) and the RelaxAway and Isla Tropicale upgrades, directly leverages sustained high demand for leisure travel among a growing global middle class. These unique, highly curated beach experiences provide pricing power over land-based alternatives and are set to significantly increase guest volumes and onboard/ancillary spend per passenger, driving both revenue and net margin growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold growth moves and guest experience upgrades analysts think will power this valuation leap? There is a crucial financial forecast and margin expansion play underpinning this target. The real surprise is the numbers behind Carnival's future pricing power—see exactly how they shake out in the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $35.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing geopolitical instability and Carnival's significant debt load could challenge the upbeat outlook and impact growth if market conditions shift unexpectedly.

Find out about the key risks to this Carnival Corporation & narrative.

Build Your Own Carnival Corporation & Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own evidence-based view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Carnival Corporation & research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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