Carnival (CCL): Assessing Valuation Following Growth Projections and Major Investments Announced at FCCA Conference

Carnival Corporation (CCL) shared upbeat perspectives at the 2025 FCCA Cruise Conference, highlighting strong industry growth, increasing demand for cruising, and major investments in new projects such as Celebration Key in the Bahamas.

See our latest analysis for Carnival Corporation &.

Carnival Corporation’s share price has seen some back-and-forth lately, but momentum remains firmly positive in the bigger picture. Despite a 9.7% slide over the past month, the stock is up 4.5% year-to-date. The total shareholder return stands at 7.5% for the last year and an impressive 175% over three years. While headline events ranged from major new cruise itineraries to a high-profile investigation handled with transparency, the broader trend reflects growing confidence in Carnival’s long-term growth and recovery story.

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With shares trading at a meaningful discount to analyst targets after strong results, investors may wonder whether Carnival remains undervalued and poised for further gains, or if the market has already priced in much of its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 27.1% Undervalued

The widely followed narrative sees Carnival Corporation’s fair value at $35.84 per share, a dramatic 37% premium to its last close of $26.14. This sets the stage for bold growth assumptions and debate about whether the market is missing a major opportunity.

Carnival's targeted expansion of private destinations, such as Celebration Key (launching July 2025) and the RelaxAway and Isla Tropicale upgrades, directly leverages sustained high demand for leisure travel among a growing global middle class. These unique, highly curated beach experiences provide pricing power over land-based alternatives and are set to significantly increase guest volumes and onboard/ancillary spend per passenger, driving both revenue and net margin growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the hidden levers behind this aggressive price target? The narrative’s assumptions hinge on ambitious expansion plans and profit growth forecasts, but not everyone agrees. Find out exactly how future earnings, margins, and guest spending translate into this bullish valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $35.84 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering debt and macroeconomic uncertainty could still derail Carnival’s momentum, especially if demand or pricing softens in key markets.

Find out about the key risks to this Carnival Corporation & narrative.

Build Your Own Carnival Corporation & Narrative

If you see things differently or enjoy digging into the numbers yourself, you can build your own Carnival Corporation story from the ground up in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Carnival Corporation & research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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