Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) Valuation After Antitrust Probe And Strong 2025 Earnings

Trip.com Group (TCOM) is in the spotlight after Chinese regulators opened an antitrust investigation, triggering shareholder litigation and fresh scrutiny of the stock just as the company reported full year 2025 results.

See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group.

Despite strong reported 2025 earnings and a busy news flow that includes board changes, a major travel sale campaign and the antitrust probe, Trip.com Group’s 30 day share price return of an 18% decline and year to date share price return of a 32% decline suggest momentum has been fading, even though the 3 year total shareholder return of 38% and 5 year total shareholder return of 29% still reflect a much stronger longer term picture.

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With Trip.com Group now trading well below analyst targets and recent returns under pressure despite strong reported 2025 results, investors may ask whether this regulatory sell off is creating a buying opportunity or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 41.6% Undervalued

Trip.com Group's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $87.08 versus the recent $50.86 close, framing a wide valuation gap for investors to assess.

Ongoing investment in proprietary artificial intelligence, personalized recommendation engines, and integrated "one-stop" trip planning tools (like Trip.Planner and Intelli-Trip) is driving higher user engagement, stronger repeat bookings, and better operating leverage, supporting margin expansion and increased customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what has to happen for that higher value to make sense? Revenue growth, earnings power and future margins all sit at the core of this narrative. The numbers behind those assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $87.08 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative can still be knocked off course if the antitrust probe leads to tighter commission terms, or if direct airline and hotel bookings chip away at Trip.com Group’s volumes.

Find out about the key risks to this Trip.com Group narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between opportunity and risk, it makes sense to check the underlying data yourself and move quickly to form your own view, starting with 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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