Announcement • Oct 25
Potbelly Corporation(NasdaqGM:) dropped from NASDAQ Composite Index Potbelly Corporation has been dropped from the NASDAQ Composite Index. Announcement • Sep 11
RaceTrac, Inc. entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB). RaceTrac, Inc. entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) for approximately $ 560million on September 9, 2025. As part of agreement, RaceTrac will commence a tender offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Potbelly for $17.12 per share. In case of termination of transaction, Potbelly Corporation will pay a termination fee of $19.80 million.
The transaction is subject to approval by regulatory board / committee, the tender of shares representing at least a majority of the total number of Potbelly’s outstanding shares and the expiration or termination of the applicable waiting period under the HSR Act. The deal has been unanimously approved by the Potbelly Corporation board. The transaction is expected to complete in fourth quarter of 2025. Upon the successful completion of the tender offer, RaceTrac will acquire all remaining shares not tendered in the tender offer through a second-step merger at the same price per share. Until the transaction closes, RaceTrac and Potbelly Corporation will continue to operate independently.
BofA Securities, Inc. acted as financial advisor for RaceTrac, Inc. Benjamin Barkley and Kelsey Donnalley of Kilpatrick Townsend & Stockton LLP acted as legal advisor for RaceTrac, Inc. Piper Sandler & Co. acted as financial advisor and fairness opinion provider for Potbelly Corporation. Allison M. Wein and Edward J. Lee of Kirkland & Ellis LLP acted as legal advisor for Potbelly Corporation. New Risk • Sep 11
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of American stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.3% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 37% After last week's 37% share price gain to US$16.98, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 52x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 214% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Aug 07
Price target increased by 9.0% to US$18.17 Up from US$16.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 40% above last closing price of US$13.02. Stock is up 90% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.29 for next year compared to US$1.35 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.082 (down from US$1.16 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$123.7m (up 3.4% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$2.49m (down 93% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.0% (down from 29% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 5.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 80% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 21
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 06, 2025 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Aug 06, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to US$10.31, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 35x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 86% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.002 loss per share (vs US$0.094 loss in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: US$0.002 loss per share (improved from US$0.094 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$113.7m (up 2.3% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: US$62.0k (loss narrowed 98% from 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 08
Potbelly Corporation Introduces Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2025 and Reiterates Earnings Guidance for the Full Year of 2025 Potbelly Corporation introduced earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2025 and reiterated earnings guidance for the full year of 2025. For the quarter, the company expects same store sales growth to be between 1.5% to 2.5%.
For the full year, the company expects same store sales growth to be between 1.5% to 2.5%. Announcement • Apr 17
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 07, 2025 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on May 07, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Apr 11
Senior VP exercised options and sold US$223k worth of stock On the 7th of April, Steven Cirulis exercised options to acquire 23k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$9.62 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since June 2024, Steven's direct individual holding has increased from 308.67k shares to 384.98k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$1.3m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Board Change • Apr 08
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 8 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Dave Pearson was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Apr 07
Potbelly Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025 Potbelly Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 13
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to US$9.73, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 35x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 46% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Mar 09
Price target increased by 8.7% to US$16.67 Up from US$15.33, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 73% above last closing price of US$9.66. Stock is down 25% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$0.28 for next year compared to US$1.35 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$1.35 (up from US$0.17 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$462.6m (down 5.9% from FY 2023). Net income: US$40.3m (up US$35.2m from FY 2023). Profit margin: 8.7% (up from 1.0% in FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 4.8%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 117% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 07
Potbelly Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter and Full Year of 2025 Potbelly Corporation provided earnings guidance for the first quarter and full Year of 2025. For the quarter, the company expects Same Store Sales % Growth of (1.5%) to (0.5%).
For the year, the company expects Same Store Sales % Growth of 1.5% to 2.5%. Announcement • Feb 18
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Mar 06, 2025 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Mar 06, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jan 28
President exercised options and sold US$112k worth of stock On the 23rd of January, Robert Wright exercised options to acquire 9k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$11.93 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to December 2020, Robert's total compensation was 19% salary and 81% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since March 2024, Robert's direct individual holding has increased from 674.83k shares to 689.95k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$719k more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to US$10.43, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 83% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$5.90 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 28% After last week's 28% share price gain to US$10.74, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 85% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$5.96 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.13 (up from US$0.051 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$115.1m (down 4.7% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$3.74m (up 150% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from 1.2% in 3Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 200%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 125% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Nov 08
Potbelly Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2024 Potbelly Corporation provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. For the quarter, the company expects Same Store Sales Growth to be negative 2.5% to negative 0.5%.
For the year, the company expects Same Store Sales Growth to be negative 1.2% to negative 0.5%. Announcement • Oct 22
Immersion Investments Issues Open Letter to Potbelly Corporation Urging Immediate Action to Maximize Value for its Shareholders On October 21, 2024, Immersion Investments, LLC and its affiliates, a top 20 shareholder of Potbelly Corporation, issued an open letter to the Company’s Board of Directors and its management team urging immediate action to maximize value for shareholders. Immersion Investments stated that it is time for action and the board needs to be aggressive in pursuing alternatives for value creation, including one or more of the following: (1) undergo a strategic review process to evaluate a sale of the entire business, (2) aggressively repurchase shares, and (3) slow internal investments in technology and headcount and look to reduce operating expenses. Announcement • Oct 17
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 07, 2024 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Nov 07, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Aug 15
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 741%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from US$466.8m to US$459.7m. EPS estimate rose from US$0.135 to US$1.14. Net income forecast to shrink 41% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in the US . Consensus price target down from US$17.00 to US$15.33. Share price rose 15% to US$7.89 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Aug 11
Price target decreased by 9.8% to US$15.33 Down from US$17.00, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 113% above last closing price of US$7.21. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of US$1.17 for next year compared to US$0.18 last year. New Risk • Aug 11
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 73% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$1.16 (up from US$0.076 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$119.7m (down 5.5% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$34.7m (up US$32.5m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 29% (up from 1.8% in 2Q 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates significantly. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 126% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 09
Potbelly Corporation Provides Sales Guidance for the Third Quarter and Full Year 2024 Potbelly Corporation provided sales guidance for the third quarter and full year 2024. For the quarter, the company expects Same Store Sales % Growth to be -3.5% to -1.5%.
For the year, the company expects Same Store Sales % Growth to be -1.5% to +0.5%. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 01
Now 13% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 30% to US$7.83. The fair value is estimated to be US$6.94, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.5% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 27% in the next year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 25
Now 23% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 37% to US$7.83. The fair value is estimated to be US$6.35, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 16% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.5% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 27% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • May 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 41% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from US$0.23 to US$0.135 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$469.8m. Net income forecast to grow 29% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in the US. Consensus price target of US$17.00 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 9.9% to US$8.79 over the past week. New Risk • May 10
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.4% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.8% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.4% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • May 10
Potbelly Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024 and Full Year 2024 Potbelly Corporation provided earnings guidance for the second quarter of 2024 and full year 2024. For the second quarter, the company expectsSame Store Sales Growth to be +0.0% to +2.0%.For the year, the company expects Same Store Sales % Growth is Low-Single Digit. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2024 results: US$0.094 loss per share (further deteriorated from US$0.046 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$111.2m (down 6.0% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: US$2.77m (loss widened 109% from 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 2 years compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Hospitality industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 122% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 09
Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) announces an Equity Buyback for $20 million worth of its shares. Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to $20 million worth of its outstanding common stock. The program will run through May 7, 2027. Announcement • Apr 19
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 08, 2024 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 08, 2024 Announcement • Apr 06
Potbelly Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2024 Potbelly Corporation, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2024. Agenda: To consider election of eight director nominees to serve on the Board of Directors; to consider ratification of the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP to serve as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 29, 2024; to consider a non-binding, advisory vote on a resolution approving the 2023 compensation of the Company's named executive officers; and to consider such other business as may properly come before the meeting. New Risk • Mar 10
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.4% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.4% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Mar 08
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: US$0.17 (up from US$0.15 in FY 2022). Revenue: US$491.4m (up 8.7% from FY 2022). Net income: US$5.12m (up 18% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (in line with FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 42%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.0% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Hospitality industry in the US are expected to grow by 9.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 117% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 30% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 08
Potbelly Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter and Full Year of 2024 Potbelly Corporation provided earnings guidance for the first quarter and full Year of 2024. For the quarter, the company expected Same-store-sales to be between (0.25%) to +0.5%.For the year, the company expected Same-store-sales to be Low- to Mid-Single Digit. Announcement • Feb 21
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Mar 07, 2024 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results After-Market on Mar 07, 2024 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jan 11
President exercised options and sold US$273k worth of stock On the 8th of January, Robert Wright exercised options to acquire 22k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$12.12 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to December 2020, Robert's total compensation was 42% salary and 58% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since March 2023, Robert's direct individual holding has increased from 569.98k shares to 616.76k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$1.2m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 09
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to US$12.12, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 64x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 156% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$5.67 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 08
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 214% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate increased from US$0.035 to US$0.11. Revenue forecast steady at US$489.3m. Net income forecast to shrink 1.5% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Hospitality industry in the US . Consensus price target up from US$13.00 to US$14.00. Share price rose 13% to US$9.93 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.051 (down from US$0.31 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: US$120.8m (up 2.7% from 3Q 2022). Net income: US$1.50m (down 83% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.2% (down from 7.7% in 3Q 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Hospitality industry in the US are expected to grow by 11%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 36% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Oct 31
Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) acquired Four Units in the greater Columbus, Ohio region from Royal Restaurant Group. Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) acquired Four Units in the greater Columbus, Ohio region from Royal Restaurant Group on October 30, 2023.Potbelly Corporation (NasdaqGS:PBPB) completed the acquisition of Four Units in the greater Columbus, Ohio region from Royal Restaurant Group on October 30, 2023. Announcement • Oct 12
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 01, 2023 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Nov 01, 2023 New Risk • Oct 05
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 18% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 18% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Aug 09
Nierenberg Investment Management Company Inc Engages with Potbelly Corporation On August 8, 2023, Nierenberg Investment Management Company Inc announced that it has engaged with the Potbelly Corporation and urged the Company to repurchase over 8M shares opportunistically over the next 9 years, beginning as soon as possible, pay off its borrowings while prudently maintaining a line of credit, scrutinize all corporate level costs for more savings opportunities, use free cash flow to reduce the share count from 29.3 to 23M, encourage insiders to buy shares. New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Aug 04
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.076 (vs US$0.02 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: US$0.076 (up from US$0.02 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: US$126.6m (up 9.2% from 2Q 2022). Net income: US$2.22m (up 286% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.8% (up from 0.5% in 2Q 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Hospitality industry in the US are expected to grow by 11%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 90% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 04
Potbelly Corporation Provides Sales Guidance for the Third Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Potbelly Corporation provided sales guidance for the third quarter and fiscal year 2023. For the quarter, the company expects Same-store sales to be 7.0% to 9.0%.For the fiscal year 2023, the company expects Same-store sales to be High single-digit to low double-digit growth. Announcement • Jul 14
Potbelly Corporation to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 03, 2023 Potbelly Corporation announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Aug 03, 2023 Announcement • Jun 14
Potbelly Corporation Announces Management Changes Potbelly Corporation announced two strategic appointments to its corporate leadership team. Industry veteran Lynette McKee, CFE has been named Senior Vice President of Franchising, overseeing all aspects of franchisee recruitment and sales. Patrick Walsh joins Potbelly as Chief People Officer and will oversee and lead the brand's People team and human resources across the company. With more than 25 years of experience in the franchising space and a Certified Franchise Executive, Ms. McKee most recently owned and operated her consulting practice, McKee Services LLC, which she began in 2012 as an advisory services firm specializing in franchising and development. She previously served as Executive Director of the National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation. Prior to that role, Ms. McKee was Chief Development Officer at Checkers Drive-In Restaurants and oversaw franchising at global restaurant brands Dunkin' Brands and Burger King. Additionally, she held franchise leadership positions at the American casual dining company Metromedia Restaurant Group, as well as several hospitality companies. Ms. McKee earned a degree in Education from Vanderbilt University. Mr. Walsh previously served as VP, Head of Human Resources at manufacturing and supply company Oil-Dri Corporation of America. Prior to that role, he spent more than a decade, non-consecutively, in various human resources positions, including leadership roles, at PepsiCo, most recently as Senior Director of Human Resources. He also has experience in the restaurant industry, having held a leadership position overseeing human resources and talent acquisition at Pizza Hut. Patrick earned an undergraduate degree in Psychology and a Master's degree in Human Resources and Industrial Relations, both from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. As Ms. McKee assumes her new role, Potbelly Chief Development Officer Larry Strain will continue to focus on supporting the brand and its franchisees in market planning, brokerage services, and other critical areas related to development through Restaurant Development Experts, the market development advisory firm he founded. Recent Insider Transactions • May 14
Senior VP & Chief Information Officer recently sold US$92k worth of stock On the 9th of May, Jeffrey Douglas sold around 11k shares on-market at roughly US$8.18 per share. This transaction amounted to 12% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent sale, insiders have collectively bought US$263k more than they sold in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • May 12
Senior VP & Chief Information Officer notifies of intention to sell stock Jeffrey Douglas intends to sell 11k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 9th of May. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$8.30, it would amount to US$93k. Since June 2022, Jeffrey's direct individual holding has increased from 54.38k shares to 96.06k. Company insiders have collectively bought US$229k more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to US$8.29, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 22.3x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Hospitality industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 268% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2023 earnings released: US$0.046 loss per share (vs US$0.28 loss in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: US$0.046 loss per share (improved from US$0.28 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: US$118.3m (up 20% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: US$1.33m (loss narrowed 83% from 1Q 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 1.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Hospitality industry in the US are expected to grow by 11%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 66% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 45% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. 
