OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:OSW) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:OSW) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to US$21.15 in the past week. OneSpaWorld Holdings reported US$895m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.69 beat expectations, being 3.8% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for OneSpaWorld Holdings

Following the latest results, OneSpaWorld Holdings' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$959.4m in 2025. This would be an okay 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 7.7% to US$0.76. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$966.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.77 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$23.25, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on OneSpaWorld Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$22.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 30% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than OneSpaWorld Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that OneSpaWorld Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on OneSpaWorld Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple OneSpaWorld Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with OneSpaWorld Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.