Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price

It's been a good week for Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ:JACK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$47.50. Revenues came in at US$1.6b, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.87 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Jack in the Box

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 19 analysts covering Jack in the Box, is for revenues of US$1.54b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 2.1% reduction in Jack in the Box's revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Jack in the Box forecast to report a statutory profit of US$5.30 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.48 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 9.5% to US$53.58, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jack in the Box analyst has a price target of US$65.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$43.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Jack in the Box is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jack in the Box. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jack in the Box's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Jack in the Box analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Jack in the Box that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.