Why Golden Entertainment's (NASDAQ:GDEN) Healthy Earnings Aren’t As Good As They Seem

Golden Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:GDEN) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

See our latest analysis for Golden Entertainment

Examining Cashflow Against Golden Entertainment's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to March 2024, Golden Entertainment had an accrual ratio of 0.28. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$13m, which is significantly less than its profit of US$286.1m. Golden Entertainment's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that Golden Entertainment's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Golden Entertainment's profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$359m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Golden Entertainment's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Golden Entertainment's Profit Performance

Summing up, Golden Entertainment received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Golden Entertainment's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (3 are significant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Golden Entertainment.

Our examination of Golden Entertainment has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.