Afya Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of AFYA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AFYA ($16.36) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($31.64)

Is AFYA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFYA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFYA ($16.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($31.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFYA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFYA?

Key metric: As AFYA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFYA. This is calculated by dividing AFYA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFYA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14.7x
Earnings	R$579.64m
Market Cap	R$8.50b

AFYA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFYA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFYA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.2x
UTI Universal Technical Institute	47.3x	41.0%	US$1.1b
PRDO Perdoceo Education	13x	9.1%	US$1.7b
KLC KinderCare Learning Companies	45.2x	42.5%	US$2.7b
LAUR Laureate Education	11.4x	2.3%	US$2.8b
AFYA Afya	14.7x	21.2%	US$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFYA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFYA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
QSG QuantaSing Group	2.7x	-21.4%	US$144.65m
STG Sunlands Technology Group	1.4x	n/a	US$90.87m
RGS Regis	0.5x	n/a	US$42.43m
REDU RISE Education Cayman	1x	n/a	US$40.41m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFYA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFYA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFYA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.7x
Fair PE Ratio	20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFYA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFYA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$16.36	US$20.77 +27.0%	12.9%	US$24.51	US$17.03	n/a	8
Nov ’25	US$17.17	US$20.70 +20.6%	11.9%	US$24.20	US$16.74	n/a	8
Oct ’25	US$17.29	US$21.97 +27.1%	10.9%	US$25.94	US$18.94	n/a	8
Sep ’25	US$16.30	US$20.96 +28.6%	9.1%	US$24.41	US$18.35	n/a	8
Aug ’25	US$17.60	US$21.21 +20.5%	9.3%	US$23.77	US$18.34	n/a	7
Jul ’25	US$17.06	US$21.36 +25.2%	8.8%	US$23.78	US$18.35	n/a	7
Jun ’25	US$16.65	US$23.28 +39.8%	9.8%	US$26.27	US$19.81	n/a	7
May ’25	US$17.28	US$23.20 +34.3%	6.9%	US$26.03	US$21.29	n/a	7
Apr ’25	US$18.53	US$23.78 +28.3%	7.1%	US$26.97	US$22.06	n/a	7
Mar ’25	US$20.58	US$23.53 +14.3%	7.7%	US$26.48	US$20.56	n/a	7
Feb ’25	US$20.59	US$23.59 +14.6%	7.5%	US$26.60	US$20.64	n/a	7
Jan ’25	US$21.93	US$21.79 -0.7%	5.6%	US$23.82	US$20.41	n/a	6
Dec ’24	US$20.45	US$21.79 +6.5%	5.6%	US$23.82	US$20.41	n/a	6
Nov ’24	US$16.66	US$21.24 +27.5%	4.8%	US$23.15	US$19.83	US$17.17	6
Oct ’24	US$15.80	US$20.99 +32.9%	12.5%	US$24.03	US$16.37	US$17.29	5
Sep ’24	US$15.97	US$19.38 +21.4%	13.8%	US$23.57	US$16.05	US$16.30	6
Aug ’24	US$16.01	US$18.25 +14.0%	19.1%	US$23.79	US$12.70	US$17.60	6
Jul ’24	US$14.04	US$17.78 +26.6%	16.4%	US$21.28	US$13.14	US$17.06	6
Jun ’24	US$11.84	US$17.14 +44.8%	17.9%	US$20.90	US$12.44	US$16.65	6
May ’24	US$11.72	US$18.65 +59.1%	17.5%	US$23.59	US$12.47	US$17.28	7
Apr ’24	US$11.16	US$17.68 +58.4%	15.7%	US$21.92	US$12.46	US$18.53	7
Mar ’24	US$11.50	US$18.62 +61.9%	10.9%	US$22.11	US$15.45	US$20.58	7
Feb ’24	US$15.53	US$18.49 +19.1%	12.4%	US$22.21	US$15.18	US$20.59	7
Jan ’24	US$15.62	US$17.34 +11.0%	13.4%	US$20.27	US$13.50	US$21.93	8
Dec ’23	US$15.43	US$17.13 +11.0%	14.4%	US$19.85	US$13.06	US$20.45	8
Nov ’23	US$14.98	US$17.74 +18.4%	17.3%	US$22.01	US$13.28	US$16.66	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.