GrainCorp (OTCPK:GRCL.F) - Share price, News & Analysis

GRCL.F fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

GRCL.F Stock Overview

GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing company in Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally.

Rewards

PE ratio (17.3x) is below the Consumer Retailing industry average (19.1x)

Earnings grew by 295.7% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 26.5% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

GrainCorp Competitors

Bunge

NYSE:BG

US$16.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for GrainCorp
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	AU$7.30
52 Week High	AU$7.65
52 Week Low	AU$3.65
Beta	1.16
1 Month Change	10.53%
3 Month Change	20.98%
1 Year Change	80.57%
3 Year Change	42.76%
5 Year Change	-1.09%
Change since IPO	-32.77%

Shareholder Returns

	GRCL.F	US Consumer Retailing	US Market
7D	-3.8%	-2.9%	-5.6%
1Y	80.6%	12.3%	-11.2%

Return vs Industry: GRCL.F exceeded the US Consumer Retailing industry which returned 11.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GRCL.F exceeded the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GRCL.F's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GRCL.F volatility
GRCL.F Average Weekly Movement	9.7%
Consumer Retailing Industry Average Movement	6.6%
Market Average Movement	7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.3%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: GRCL.F is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GRCL.F's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1916	2,380	Robert Spurway	https://www.graincorp.com.au

GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing company in Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Processing. The company handles, markets, and trades in wheat, barley, sorghum, corn, oilseeds, pulses, organics, canola, and specialty commodities; handles, processes, stores, and transports grains and oilseeds; refines, bleaches, deodorizes, and blends edible fats and oil products; and crushes, processes, manufactures, and distributes edible oils.

GrainCorp Fundamentals Summary

How do GrainCorp's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GRCL.F fundamental statistics
Market Cap	AU$2.41b
Earnings (TTM)	AU$139.30m
Revenue (TTM)	AU$5.49b

17.3x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is GRCL.F overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GRCL.F income statement (TTM)
Revenue	AU$5.49b
Cost of Revenue	AU$4.70b
Gross Profit	AU$790.40m
Other Expenses	AU$651.10m
Earnings	AU$139.30m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

May 11, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.61
Gross Margin	14.39%
Net Profit Margin	2.54%
Debt/Equity Ratio	60.2%

How did GRCL.F perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.9%

Current Dividend Yield

30%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is GrainCorp undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

17.31x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GRCL.F ($7.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($7.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRCL.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GRCL.F is good value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (19.1x).

PE vs Market: GRCL.F is poor value based on its PE Ratio (17.3x) compared to the US market (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GRCL.F's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GRCL.F is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (1.9x).

Future Growth

How is GrainCorp forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-26.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GRCL.F's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-26.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: GRCL.F's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-26.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GRCL.F's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GRCL.F's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GRCL.F's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GRCL.F's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.7%).

Past Performance

How has GrainCorp performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-25.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GRCL.F has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GRCL.F's current net profit margins (2.5%) are higher than last year (1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GRCL.F's earnings have declined by 25.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GRCL.F's earnings growth over the past year (295.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (-25.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GRCL.F earnings growth over the past year (295.7%) exceeded the Consumer Retailing industry 1.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: GRCL.F's Return on Equity (11.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is GrainCorp's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GRCL.F's short term assets (A$1.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (A$1.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: GRCL.F's short term assets (A$1.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (A$383.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GRCL.F's net debt to equity ratio (49.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GRCL.F's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 68.3% to 60.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GRCL.F's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24.2%).

Interest Coverage: GRCL.F's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (14.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is GrainCorp current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.89%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GRCL.F's dividend (1.89%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.53%).

High Dividend: GRCL.F's dividend (1.89%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GRCL.F's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GRCL.F's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (29.5%), GRCL.F's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (37.8%), GRCL.F's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Consumer Retailing industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Robert Spurway

2.17yrs

Tenure

AU$2,759,000

Compensation

Mr. Robert J. Spurway, B.E. (Chemical and Materials), serves as Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director at GrainCorp Limited since March 23, 2020 and also serves as it's Director. Mr. Spurway served...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Robert's total compensation ($USD1.91M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.44M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Robert's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GRCL.F's management team is considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: GRCL.F's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/10 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30