GrainCorp Limited

OTCPK:GRCL.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.0b

GrainCorp Valuation

Is GRCL.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRCL.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GRCL.F ($4.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($8.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRCL.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRCL.F?

Key metric: As GRCL.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRCL.F. This is calculated by dividing GRCL.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRCL.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.7x
EarningsAU$61.80m
Market CapAU$1.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRCL.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRCL.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.1x
ANDE Andersons
11.2x18.2%US$1.4b
SPTN SpartanNash
14.3x18.5%US$654.8m
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse
40.2x22.3%US$1.9b
WILC G. Willi-Food International
14.8xn/aUS$225.5m
GRCL.F GrainCorp
26.7x15.9%US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRCL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the peer average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRCL.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
GRCL.F 26.7xIndustry Avg. 24.8xNo. of Companies4PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRCL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (24.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRCL.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRCL.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.7x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRCL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRCL.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$4.66
US$5.99
+28.5%
8.0%US$6.85US$5.03n/a10
Dec ’25US$5.33
US$6.14
+15.3%
8.7%US$7.15US$5.13n/a10
Nov ’25US$5.86
US$6.46
+10.3%
8.7%US$7.39US$5.30n/a10
Oct ’25US$6.33
US$6.59
+4.1%
8.5%US$7.60US$5.46n/a10
Sep ’25US$5.94
US$6.33
+6.6%
8.5%US$6.97US$5.03n/a10
Aug ’25US$5.82
US$6.21
+6.7%
8.5%US$6.83US$4.93n/a10
Jul ’25US$5.76
US$6.21
+7.8%
8.5%US$6.83US$4.93n/a10
Jun ’25US$5.48
US$6.07
+10.8%
8.0%US$6.67US$4.93n/a10
May ’25US$5.41
US$5.62
+3.8%
9.6%US$6.34US$4.78n/a9
Apr ’25US$5.17
US$5.62
+8.6%
9.6%US$6.34US$4.78n/a9
Mar ’25US$4.82
US$5.50
+14.0%
11.3%US$6.26US$4.38n/a9
Feb ’25US$5.12
US$5.71
+11.6%
11.0%US$6.48US$4.51n/a9
Jan ’25US$4.99
US$5.71
+14.3%
11.1%US$6.47US$4.50n/a9
Dec ’24US$4.97
US$5.71
+14.9%
10.9%US$6.47US$4.50US$5.339
Nov ’24US$4.25
US$5.50
+29.5%
13.3%US$6.39US$4.24US$5.869
Oct ’24US$4.63
US$5.61
+21.3%
11.8%US$6.46US$4.59US$6.339
Sep ’24US$4.88
US$6.06
+24.1%
11.1%US$6.90US$4.90US$5.949
Aug ’24US$5.38
US$6.06
+12.6%
11.1%US$6.90US$4.90US$5.829
Jul ’24US$5.29
US$5.85
+10.6%
10.1%US$6.67US$4.80US$5.769
Jun ’24US$5.14
US$5.89
+14.7%
10.1%US$6.65US$4.79US$5.489
May ’24US$4.63
US$5.72
+23.8%
15.2%US$7.24US$4.49US$5.418
Apr ’24US$4.61
US$5.68
+23.3%
14.3%US$7.18US$4.45US$5.179
Mar ’24US$5.29
US$5.97
+12.9%
13.6%US$7.43US$4.61US$4.8210
Feb ’24US$5.27
US$6.16
+17.0%
13.9%US$7.70US$4.78US$5.1210
Jan ’24US$5.19
US$5.81
+12.0%
13.3%US$7.23US$4.48US$4.9911
Dec ’23US$5.28
US$5.87
+11.0%
13.3%US$7.29US$4.52US$4.9711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 02:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

GrainCorp Limited is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dennis HulmeAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter