Assessing US Foods Holding (USFD) Valuation After Earnings Growth, Upgraded Guidance, and Institutional Buying

US Foods Holding (USFD) has given investors plenty to digest lately, with fresh third quarter earnings showing improvements in both sales and profit. The company also adjusted its full-year outlook and increased share repurchases.

See our latest analysis for US Foods Holding.

US Foods Holding’s recent earnings beat and ongoing share buybacks have kept investors engaged, while strong institutional backing such as Wellington’s stake increase underscores confidence in future growth. Despite some short-term softness, the stock’s 1-year total shareholder return of 9.7% and an impressive 104.5% over three years show that long-term momentum is still very much in play.

If US Foods’ persistent growth and support from big investors have you looking for more opportunities, consider the logical next step and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with strong financials and institutional backing driving recent gains, is US Foods Holding still trading below its true value? Or has the market already factored in the company’s future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Undervalued

With the latest narrative fair value of $92.40 significantly above the last close price of $71.74, analysts are anchoring their optimism to improving profitability and margin potential that could reshape US Foods Holding’s valuation in the coming years.

The company's strong focus on private label and value-added offerings, with penetration now exceeding 53% among independent restaurants, enhances gross margins and provides insulation from input cost pressures. This strategy is driving steady EPS accretion. Growing customer demand for sustainable sourcing and ESG compliance positions US Foods, given its scale, product assortment, and proven emissions reduction results, to capture share from smaller regional players. As restaurants prioritize responsible supply partners, this further supports revenue growth and gross profit improvement.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how US Foods Holding might leapfrog rivals? The narrative is driven by margin expansion, bold profit forecasts, and reliance on efficiency breakthroughs and product strategy shifts. Want to know the pivotal numbers powering this high target? Dive deeper for the underlying calculations and critical milestones analysts are banking on for this sizable upside.

Result: Fair Value of $92.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, investors should remember that shifts in consumer demand or operational hiccups in major acquisitions could quickly challenge US Foods Holding’s optimistic outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this US Foods Holding narrative.

Another View: Gauging Value by Earnings Multiples

Taking a step back from narrative-driven targets, let’s look at how US Foods Holding stacks up based on its current price-to-earnings ratio. At 28.7x, the company trades above both the industry average (21.3x) and its peers (30x), but only slightly above the estimated fair ratio of 28.4x. This suggests limited value cushion and signals that expectations are already high, raising the stakes if growth wobbles. Could this tight margin for error shift sentiment if forecasts take a hit?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own US Foods Holding Narrative

If you think there’s another angle to the US Foods Holding story, you can get hands-on with the data and build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your US Foods Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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