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- NasdaqGS:WBA
Investors in Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) have unfortunately lost 66% over the last three years
If you are building a properly diversified stock portfolio, the chances are some of your picks will perform badly. But long term Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ:WBA) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Regrettably, they have had to cope with a 71% drop in the share price over that period. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 50% lower in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 26% in the last three months.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
View our latest analysis for Walgreens Boots Alliance
Because Walgreens Boots Alliance made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Walgreens Boots Alliance saw its revenue grow by 3.4% per year, compound. Given it's losing money in pursuit of growth, we are not really impressed with that. Nonetheless, it's fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 20%, compound, over three years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. While we're definitely wary of the stock, after that kind of performance, it could be an over-reaction. Before considering a purchase, take a look at the losses the company is racking up.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Walgreens Boots Alliance stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Walgreens Boots Alliance the TSR over the last 3 years was -66%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Walgreens Boots Alliance had a tough year, with a total loss of 47% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Walgreens Boots Alliance you should know about.
Walgreens Boots Alliance is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Walgreens Boots Alliance might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:WBA
Walgreens Boots Alliance
Operates as a healthcare, pharmacy, and retail company in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Undervalued with moderate growth potential.
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