Here's Why Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Grocery Outlet Holding

How Much Debt Does Grocery Outlet Holding Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Grocery Outlet Holding had US$450.3m in debt in July 2021; about the same as the year before. However, it does have US$126.6m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$323.7m.

How Healthy Is Grocery Outlet Holding's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Grocery Outlet Holding had liabilities of US$213.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.38b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$126.6m as well as receivables valued at US$9.35m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.46b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$2.26b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Grocery Outlet Holding's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Grocery Outlet Holding's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.9 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 6.3 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. If Grocery Outlet Holding can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 17% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Grocery Outlet Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Grocery Outlet Holding's free cash flow amounted to 40% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Grocery Outlet Holding was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to handle its total liabilities. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Grocery Outlet Holding's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Grocery Outlet Holding has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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