At US$81.70, Is PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) Worth Looking At Closely?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM). The company's stock saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at PulteGroup’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for PulteGroup

What Is PulteGroup Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 1.5% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy PulteGroup today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $82.92, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since PulteGroup’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of PulteGroup look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -15% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for PulteGroup. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, PHM appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PHM for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on PHM should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for PulteGroup and you'll want to know about this.

If you are no longer interested in PulteGroup, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.