On Holding AG Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

It's been a good week for On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.9% to US$48.19. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and On Holding delivered a statutory loss of CHF0.12 per share. Revenues of CHF749m did beat expectations by 6.4% though. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from On Holding's 26 analysts is for revenues of CHF2.96b in 2025. This reflects a notable 8.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to CHF0.49. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF2.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF0.74 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for On Holding

The consensus price target held steady at US$65.95, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values On Holding at US$79.07 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.11. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that On Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 19% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for On Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for On Holding you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.