Is There Now An Opportunity In M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO)?

While M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on M/I Homes’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for M/I Homes

What's The Opportunity In M/I Homes?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 3.35x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 6.92x, which means if you buy M/I Homes today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe M/I Homes should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since M/I Homes’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of M/I Homes look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of M/I Homes, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, MHO appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on MHO, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MHO for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on MHO should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

If you want to dive deeper into M/I Homes, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for M/I Homes you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in M/I Homes, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.