- United States
- Consumer Durables
A Look At The Fair Value Of Installed Building Products, Inc. (NYSE:IBP)
- Installed Building Products' estimated fair value is US$95.54 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With US$114 share price, Installed Building Products appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 15% lower than Installed Building Products' analyst price target of US$112
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Installed Building Products, Inc. (NYSE:IBP) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Installed Building Products
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$270.2m||US$230.8m||US$220.0m||US$217.1m||US$216.5m||US$217.4m||US$219.4m||US$222.2m||US$225.5m||US$229.3m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x5||Analyst x5||Analyst x1||Est @ -1.30%||Est @ -0.29%||Est @ 0.42%||Est @ 0.91%||Est @ 1.26%||Est @ 1.50%||Est @ 1.67%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.6%||US$247||US$192||US$167||US$151||US$137||US$126||US$116||US$107||US$99.2||US$92.0|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.4b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$229m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (9.6%– 2.1%) = US$3.1b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 9.6%)10= US$1.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$114, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Installed Building Products as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.260. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Installed Building Products
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Consumer Durables market.
- Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- IBP's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
- Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 2 years.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Installed Building Products, there are three important factors you should assess:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Installed Building Products (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for IBP's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Installed Building Products is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Installed Building Products
Installed Building Products, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation of insulation, waterproofing, fire-stopping, fireproofing, garage doors, rain gutters, window blinds, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors, and other products in the continental United States.
Solid track record with adequate balance sheet.