There's No Escaping Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s (NYSE:GRBK) Muted Earnings

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.7x Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 20x and even P/E's higher than 35x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.

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Green Brick Partners' earnings growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this modest earnings performance may begin to slide. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Green Brick Partners.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Green Brick Partners would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 7.0% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 46% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 18% as estimated by the dual analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's understandable that Green Brick Partners' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.

The Bottom Line On Green Brick Partners' P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Green Brick Partners maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Green Brick Partners (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.