Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Capri Holdings fair value estimate is US$69.70
- Capri Holdings' US$43.75 share price signals that it might be 37% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 24% higher than Capri Holdings' analyst price target of US$56.42
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Capri Holdings Limited (NYSE:CPRI) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
View our latest analysis for Capri Holdings
Crunching The Numbers
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$302.0m | US$546.2m | US$632.0m | US$695.7m | US$749.5m | US$795.3m | US$834.7m | US$869.5m | US$900.8m | US$929.6m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x5 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 10.08% | Est @ 7.74% | Est @ 6.10% | Est @ 4.96% | Est @ 4.16% | Est @ 3.60% | Est @ 3.21% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 11% | US$273 | US$446 | US$466 | US$463 | US$451 | US$432 | US$410 | US$386 | US$361 | US$337 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.0b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$930m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (11%– 2.3%) = US$11b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 11%)10= US$4.1b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$8.1b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$43.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Capri Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.533. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Capri Holdings
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Looking Ahead:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Capri Holdings, we've put together three fundamental elements you should further examine:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Capri Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does CPRI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:CPRI
Capri Holdings
Designs, markets, distributes, and retails branded women’s and men’s apparel, footwear, and accessories in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Oceania.
Undervalued with moderate growth potential.
