Stock Analysis

Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) Analysts Just Slashed This Year's Revenue Estimates By 12%

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One thing we could say about the analysts on Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the latest downgrade, the nine analysts covering Traeger provided consensus estimates of US$580m revenue in 2023, which would reflect an uneasy 12% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 89% to US$0.33. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$656m and losses of US$0.34 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

View our latest analysis for Traeger

NYSE:COOK Earnings and Revenue Growth March 18th 2023

The consensus price target fell 9.1% to US$3.88, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring analyst sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Traeger analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 12% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 0.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Traeger's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for this year, and they expect sales to lag the wider market. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Traeger going forwards.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Traeger going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

What are the risks and opportunities for Traeger?

Traeger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, sells, and supports wood pellet fueled barbecue grills for retailers, distributors, and direct to consumers in the United States.

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  • Trading at 46.8% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 99.08% per year


  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

  • Volatile share price over the past 3 months

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