Mattel (MAT): Assessing Valuation as New Roblox Partnership Expands Digital Growth Potential

Mattel (MAT) and Roblox's expanded partnership is stirring up conversation, as the two companies gear up to release a lineup of new digital games spotlighting Mattel's signature brands, including Monster High and Barbie. This collaboration is designed to translate brand success from shelves to screens, with a focus on building ongoing digital engagement and future growth.

See our latest analysis for Mattel.

Mattel’s latest string of collaborations, including its expanded partnership with Roblox and a design-focused deal with the Museum of Modern Art, have put the spotlight back on the brand and contributed to a resurgence in investor confidence. The 7.7% share price return over the past week stands out among recent movements. It is worth noting, however, that the one-year total shareholder return is still down 3.4%, reflecting a market that is cautiously optimistic about Mattel’s digital and creative pivot while recognizing the challenges of sustaining momentum long term.

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With Mattel’s stock trading at a notable discount to analyst price targets, investors must consider whether the company’s ambitious digital push represents an overlooked buying opportunity, or if the market has already priced in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

With the narrative’s fair value for Mattel set at $24.83 and the last close price at $18.41, this framework presents a notable disconnect in expectations. This invites a closer look at the drivers behind such an optimistic outlook, particularly as digital expansion and global momentum fuel debate among investors.

Strong international revenue growth (EMEA +8%, Latin America +5%, Asia Pacific +16%) driven by rising middle-class populations is expanding Mattel's addressable market, supporting both top-line growth and long-term earnings potential. The company is accelerating its entertainment and content strategy (Mattel Studios, 1, 2 films per year starting in 2026, new animated and live-action franchises), creating high-margin, recurring revenue streams that enhance net margins through IP licensing and multimedia monetization.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how Mattel’s evolving business model ties into this bold price target? The secret sauce lies in new revenue streams and projected financial improvements rarely seen outside fast-growing tech plays. Want to see which levers analysts believe will propel earnings and justify such a premium narrative value? Dive in to uncover the key drivers hidden in the numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $24.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Mattel’s heavy reliance on core brands, combined with ongoing industry headwinds from digital entertainment, could quickly challenge even the most optimistic forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Mattel narrative.

Build Your Own Mattel Narrative

If you’d rather draw your own conclusions or challenge the prevailing viewpoint, you can dive into the data and craft a fresh perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Mattel research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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