Can Mattel's (MAT) New Netflix Alliance Offset Slowing Sales and Sustain Its Brand Momentum?

• Mattel reported third-quarter 2025 results with net sales of US$1,736 million and reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings outlook, forecasting net sales (constant currency) growth of 1% to 3% despite a sales decline compared to the same period last year.
• Netflix announced that Mattel and Hasbro have been named global co-master toy licensees for the record-breaking KPop Demon Hunters franchise, signaling a substantial expansion of Mattel's entertainment and licensing presence across physical and digital platforms.
• We'll explore how Mattel's expanded Netflix partnership and renewed revenue guidance shape the company's investment narrative moving forward.

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Mattel Investment Narrative Recap

Mattel shareholders typically buy in based on the belief that the company's transformation into an entertainment and digital content platform can drive sustained growth and margin expansion beyond its core toy brands. Despite sales and earnings missing expectations in the third quarter, management reaffirmed full-year guidance and pointed to a potential holiday sales boost, suggesting short-term performance depends heavily on a strong close to the year; however, persistent cost pressures from tariffs and supply chain disruptions remain a pressing risk. Of the latest announcements, Mattel’s expanded Netflix partnership surrounding the KPop Demon Hunters franchise stands out as the most relevant news, broadening the company's entertainment licensing business and supporting one of the key growth catalysts: monetizing IP across digital and physical platforms. As this collaboration ramps into 2026, it could potentially help offset slower growth in legacy toy segments and support efforts to diversify Mattel's revenue. Yet, against the upside from new partnerships, investors need to watch closely for signs that input cost inflation or tariff-related headwinds...

Read the full narrative on Mattel (it's free!)

Mattel's narrative projects $5.8 billion revenue and $533.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.7% yearly revenue growth and a $7 million earnings increase from $526.3 million currently.

Uncover how Mattel's forecasts yield a $24.27 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members recently estimated Mattel’s fair value from as low as US$21.29 to as high as US$26.89, across three different forecasts. While some see value and upside, continued pressure from tariffs and supply chain costs could test any bullish expectations, so reviewing multiple viewpoints may be useful before making conclusions.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Mattel - why the stock might be worth just $21.29!

Build Your Own Mattel Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Mattel research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Mattel research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Mattel's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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