Waste Management (WM): Assessing Valuation After New 2026 Dividend Hike and $3 Billion Buyback Approval

Waste Management (WM) just doubled down on rewarding shareholders, approving a 14.5% dividend increase for 2026 alongside a fresh $3 billion buyback program that signals steady confidence in its long term cash generation.

See our latest analysis for Waste Management.

The announcement lands after a steady run, with a roughly 9% year to date share price return and a powerful five year total shareholder return of about 101%, suggesting momentum is still firmly on WM’s side.

If WM’s mix of resilience and rising payouts appeals to you, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potentially compelling ideas.

But with the stock already up strongly over the past five years and trading only modestly below analyst targets, is WM still quietly undervalued, or is the market already baking in years of steady growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

With Waste Management closing at $218.90 against a narrative fair value near the mid 240s, the story points to meaningful upside driven by structural margin gains.

The implementation of technology to supplement the workforce and optimize cost structures is expected to be a significant differentiator for Waste Management, potentially leading to improved net margins. The adoption of automation and technology, such as automated recycling facilities, is leading to improved EBITDA margins, which might provide stronger future earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady growth, richer margins and a premium future earnings multiple all fit together to justify that valuation gap? The full narrative unpacks the exact revenue runway, profit expansion and earnings power that drive this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $246.52 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, expiring fuel tax credits and tougher recycled commodity pricing could squeeze margins and challenge the upbeat assumptions behind WM’s current fair value narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Waste Management narrative.

Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to crunch the numbers yourself, you can build a complete view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Waste Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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