A Fresh Look at Republic Services (RSG) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Pullback

Republic Services (RSG) shares have pulled back about 8% over the past 3 months. The stock has cooled from recent highs, which is attracting fresh attention from investors who are weighing the company’s growth prospects against its recent financial results.

See our latest analysis for Republic Services.

Zooming out, Republic Services is coming off a strong run, with a 10.47% year-to-date share price return and an 8.67% total shareholder return over the past year. Momentum has eased recently; however, the company’s three- and five-year total shareholder returns of 71.12% and 157.77% show the business has delivered for long-term holders, even if sentiment is now shifting to a more cautious outlook.

If you’re weighing where momentum can be found next, it’s worth broadening your search to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

The recent dip and lagging momentum raise a crucial question for investors: is Republic Services trading at a rare discount, or are markets already factoring in every bit of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 15.3% Undervalued

At the most recent close, Republic Services shares traded at $221.03, well below the narrative’s fair value estimate of $260.90. This gap is powered by a series of strategic bets and optimistic projections that may surprise cautious investors.

Sustainability efforts such as the development of Polymer Centers and the Blue Polymers joint venture could drive future revenue growth by enhancing plastic circularity and decarbonization. These operations are expected to contribute to earnings starting in the second half of 2025.

Read the complete narrative.

What if the secret sauce behind this target isn’t just about headline growth? Underneath, analysts are counting on a ramp-up in profitability and a market valuation that pushes industry boundaries. Want to see the full playbook and how these optimistic assumptions add up? The real numbers might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $260.90 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent softness in construction demand or new hurdles from trade policies could pose real challenges to Republic Services’ projected growth trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Republic Services narrative.

Another View: Looking Through Market Multiples

While the earlier approach suggests Republic Services is undervalued versus future growth, a look at its price-to-earnings ratio paints a more cautious story. The current multiple stands at 32.5x, above its industry average of 27.4x and higher than the fair ratio of 31.4x. Compared to peers averaging 45.8x, RSG seems more reasonably priced in its sector. Investors should consider whether the premium versus the industry signals confidence or increases exposure to downside if growth stalls. Could the market be overestimating future gains?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Republic Services Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or think a different story unfolds in the numbers, it only takes a few minutes to shape your own view. Start with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Republic Services research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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