KBR (KBR): Evaluating Value After Revenue Guidance Cut and Headwinds—from NASA Win to Joint Venture Changes

KBR (KBR) recently updated its outlook for 2025 and lowered revenue guidance after changes in a key joint venture reduced expectations by roughly $900 million. This move spotlights ongoing uncertainty in the business.

See our latest analysis for KBR.

Over the past year, KBR’s share price has struggled, down nearly 29% year-to-date and delivering a total shareholder return of -31.4%. This indicates that recent turbulence in revenue forecasts and shifting business momentum are weighing heavily on investor sentiment. Despite fresh milestones like the NASA spacesuit contract, short-term momentum remains subdued. The market appears to be continuing to process recent setbacks in the context of ongoing long-term transformation.

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KBR’s steep year-to-date slide and meaningful discount to analyst price targets raise a key question for investors: are we looking at a true undervaluation, or is the market already factoring in the headwinds and KBR’s future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

The most widely tracked narrative sets KBR's fair value at $55.63, considerably above its last close of $41.22. This signals that analysts believe the current share price does not reflect the company’s forward potential, especially as it undergoes key business changes.

The passage of the U.S. Reconciliation Act is unlocking over $1 trillion in national security and defense spending through 2026. KBR is well-positioned to capture incremental funding due to its established positions in mission tech, advanced defense technologies, and intelligence contracts, supporting potential revenue and earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to uncover the assumptions driving this big valuation gap? The key ingredient in this fair value is a major profit transition and a future earnings trajectory with ambitious targets. Curious what numbers and financial leaps fuel this thesis? Dive in to see the bold projections powering analysts’ optimism.

Result: Fair Value of $55.63 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, KBR still faces risks such as slower contract awards and revenue delays, which could challenge the assumptions underpinning current valuation optimism.

Find out about the key risks to this KBR narrative.

Build Your Own KBR Narrative

If you think there’s another angle or want to dig into the data yourself, you can shape your own view with just a few clicks. Do it your way

A great starting point for your KBR research is our analysis highlighting 6 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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