GEO Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
GEO Group has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 20.9%, while the Commercial Services industry saw earnings growing at 7.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 3.5% per year. GEO Group's return on equity is 19.2%, and it has net margins of 10.3%.
Key information
20.90%
Earnings growth rate
16.82%
EPS growth rate
| Commercial Services Industry Growth | 8.53% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.49% |
| Return on equity | 19.24% |
| Net Margin | 10.31% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Jun 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 14h
GEO Group: The Sustainability Of The Growth Surge Is In Doubt
Summary The GEO Group has rallied higher in 2026 with the stock almost doubling in value, but the pace seems to have slowed to a crawl more recently. Growth has surged in 2026, especially in terms of earnings, and GEO could even be undervalued relative to growth if this continues. There is reason to doubt whether GEO will be able to maintain the current rate of growth over the longer term. Growth is likely to stay strong short-term, but beyond that is a question mark, which is why I am neutral on GEO with a hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 22
GEO: ICE Contracts And Asset Strength Will Shape Bullish 2026 Outlook
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $4 to $37.75, citing higher Street price targets around $40, the recent Q2 outperformance, support from new ICE contracts, and perceived underlying asset value. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on GEO Group has focused on how the Q2 report and new ICE contracts feed into valuation, as well as what the current business mix means for execution risk and future growth potential.Analysis Article • Aug 09
The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) last week reported its latest second-quarter results, which makes it a good time for...
Narrative Update • Aug 08
GEO: Pricing Gains And New ICE Contracts Offset Census And Policy Risks
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for GEO Group from $27.00 to $31.00, citing higher Street price targets near $40 and recent research that points to supportive pricing, mix, and sector demand expectations despite softer census trends. Analyst Commentary on GEO Group Recent Street research on GEO Group has focused on how pricing, mix, and sector demand interact with softer census trends and evolving government policy.Narrative Update • Jul 25
GEO: Facility Acquisitions And Detention Standards Scrutiny Will Shape 2026 Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised the GEO Group fair value estimate from $32.00 to $33.75, citing updated price targets, including a move to $40.00, and increased confidence that government facility acquisition plans and a more active back half of 2026 could support the stock's outlook. What’s in the News for GEO Group An off duty GEO Group employee operating at the ICE detention center in Aurora, Colorado was charged with assault after a shooting incident involving protesters, with the company placing the employee on unpaid administrative leave and stating it would cooperate with law enforcement investigations, according to recent news reports.
Narrative Update • Jul 11
GEO: Government Facility Acquisitions And ICE Detention Exposure Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts raised their price target on GEO Group stock to $40 from $30, citing updated assumptions that include a higher $40 fair value estimate, a slightly lower discount rate, modestly adjusted revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by expectations for an active security services backdrop and ongoing government interest in acquiring private detention facilities. What’s in the News for GEO Group GEO Group was reported by the Washington Post to have asked Immigration and Customs Enforcement to revise federal detention standards, including language on compliance with state and local laws and the legal status of detainees working in facilities, amid ongoing minimum wage related lawsuits in multiple states.Narrative Update • Jun 26
GEO: Government Facility Acquisitions And Detention Policy Scrutiny Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have raised the GEO Group fair value estimate from $29.50 to $32.00, citing recent Street research that lifts the broader price target range toward $40 and points to continued confidence in the government's initiative to acquire private detention facilities. What’s in the News for GEO Group GEO Group reportedly asked U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to amend federal detention standards, including removing certain language about following state and local laws on detainee treatment and clarifying that detainees are not employees of the facilities where they work, according to reporting cited from the Washington Post.Analysis Article • Jun 20
GEO Group (GEO) Stock Near Fair Value After ICE Detention Standards Change
Why GEO Group Stock Is Back in Focus After ICE Detention Standard Changes GEO Group (GEO) is drawing attention after reports that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement updated detention center standards in ways that reportedly reflect changes the company requested regarding language on detainee treatment. This development goes to the heart of GEO Group’s role as a government services contractor in secure facilities and immigrant detention, raising fresh questions about operational...Narrative Update • Jun 11
GEO: ICE Detention Exposure And Political Ties Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target on GEO Group to $33.00, reflecting updated views on discount rate assumptions, revenue growth expectations, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Watchdog group alleges GEO Group illegally directed US$250,000 to a political network tied to Rep.Narrative Update • May 28
GEO: ICE Detention Demand And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target for GEO Group to $29.50, with the change primarily reflecting minor updates to the discount rate and expected future P/E, rather than any major shift in the underlying fair value assumptions. What's in the News The House Oversight Committee opened an inquiry into Corey Lewandowski that mentions GEO Group in related reporting (NBC News).Narrative Update • May 13
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Political Scrutiny Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their GEO Group price targets, with recent cuts such as a move to $28 from $35, mainly citing slower than expected growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research comments have focused on how GEO Group’s updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance feed into both growth expectations and the valuation framework that analysts are using.Narrative Update • Apr 28
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on GEO Group, with reductions such as from $35 to $28, reflecting slower than anticipated growth following recent Q4 results and 2026 guidance updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are trimming price targets on GEO Group, but are still signaling confidence in the company’s long term execution and growth potential despite the slower than anticipated trajectory implied by Q4 results and 2026 guidance.Narrative Update • Apr 13
GEO: Slower Guidance And Leadership Shifts Set Up Future Detention Upside
Analysts have reduced GEO Group's fair value estimate to $27 from $35, reflecting updated expectations for slower growth and lower profit margins following recent guidance. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have moved to lower GEO Group's valuation anchors, pointing to slower growth expectations and pressure on profit margins after the latest quarter and 2026 guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 30
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And 2026 Guidance Will Reset Earnings Expectations
Analysts have reduced their price expectations for GEO Group, with recent updates lowering targets to $28. This reflects slower than anticipated growth following the company’s Q4 results and 2026 guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending Upside Will Drive 2026 Earnings Repricing
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for GEO Group from $35.00 to $33.00, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated earnings assumptions. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the recent fair value and price target revisions as a recalibration after updated Q4 results and 2026 guidance, rather than a shift away from a constructive long term view on GEO Group.Narrative Update • Mar 02
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Buybacks Will Support Path Toward $3b Revenue
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group to $29.50 from $32.25, citing slower than anticipated growth, as reflected in recent price target cuts and updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally aligned with the trimmed fair value estimate, with price targets recalibrated after the company issued Q4 results and 2026 guidance that pointed to slower than previously assumed growth.Narrative Update • Feb 16
GEO: ICE Detention Spending And Leadership Shift Will Shape 2026 Earnings
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for GEO Group by $2 to $35, citing updated assumptions for growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple reflected in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest target changes as a recalibration rather than a shift in view on GEO Group’s underlying thesis.Narrative Update • Feb 02
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Programs Will Underpin 2026 Earnings Profile
Analysts have trimmed their price target on GEO Group to US$37 from US$50, citing revised growth estimates and a softer profit outlook, even as they continue to highlight potential revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the lower US$37 price target as a reset rather than a reversal in their view on GEO Group.Narrative Update • Jan 19
GEO: Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Will Support Path Toward $3B Revenue
Narrative Update Analysts cut their price target on GEO Group by $13 to $37, citing revised estimates that reflect slower than expected growth toward the projected $3b+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring. They still expressed a positive view on all business segments, including the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.Narrative Update • Jan 05
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring Contracts Will Drive Path Toward $3B Annualized Revenue
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on GEO Group, trimming expectations by approximately $13 per share to reflect slower than expected growth. They are still emphasizing long term revenue potential from upcoming contracts and monitoring programs.Narrative Update • Dec 21
GEO Will Benefit From Upcoming Contracts And Monitoring Expansion By 2026
Analysts have reduced their price target on GEO Group to $37.00 from $50.00, citing slower than previously expected revenue growth and profitability, despite continued optimism about the company’s long term contract and monitoring opportunities. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts emphasize that the revised $37.00 price target still implies meaningful upside from current trading levels, arguing that the market has not fully reflected GEO Group’s multi year contract pipeline and expanding monitoring footprint in its valuation.Narrative Update • Dec 07
GEO: Upcoming Monitoring And Contract Wins Will Drive Revenue Expansion By 2026
Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on GEO Group, reflecting a recalibration toward slower near term growth. They continue to highlight multi year contract wins and monitoring opportunities that could support the path to more than $3 billion in annualized revenue and underpin an updated fair value estimate of approximately $32.25 per share.Narrative Update • Nov 23
GEO: Upcoming Contracts Will Significantly Boost Annual Revenue By 2026
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $34.25 to $32.25. They cite revised estimates that reflect slower-than-expected growth, although there remains continued optimism around new contract opportunities and segment performance.Analysis Article • Nov 14
GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Solid Profits Have Weak Fundamentals
Last week's profit announcement from The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline...Narrative Update • Nov 08
GEO: New Contracts Will Drive Annualized Revenue Past $3 Billion
Analysts have lowered their price target for GEO Group from $39 to $34.25 per share, citing slower-than-expected revenue growth and profit margins based on recent research updates. However, they remain optimistic about the company's long-term opportunities.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Federal Funding Will Expand ICE Facility Activations
Analyst sentiment on GEO Group is mixed, with bulls citing favorable immigration policy momentum and likely funding increases while bears flag slower growth in alternatives to detention, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $39.00. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect significant demand tailwinds for GEO Group due to major U.S. immigration policy proposals, including anticipated funding increases for detention and monitoring services.Analysis Article • Aug 08
Earnings Beat: The GEO Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
The GEO Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GEO ) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall...Analysis Article • Jul 10
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Analysis Article • Jun 22
Investors Will Want GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Growth In ROCE To Persist
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • May 14
Investors Can Find Comfort In GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) Earnings Quality
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. Despite the soft profit...Analysis Article • Apr 27
The GEO Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:GEO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
The GEO Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:GEO ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x may not look like an appealing investment...Analysis Article • Mar 22
GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Seeking Alpha • Mar 21
The GEO Group: The Stock Has Re-Priced And No Longer Offers Attractive Risk/Reward
Summary GEO Group's EBITDA declined in 2024, and missed my expectations. Refinancing in April 2024 lowered interest expenses but increased share count by 15%, diluting stock value. The market cap is $3.6 billion with an EV/EBITDA ratio over 11x, making the stock overvalued compared to my initial target. The stock no longer offers favorable risk/reward, as it missed EBITDA expectations and has a higher share count. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How GEO Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 2,827 | 292 | 246 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 2,732 | 273 | 237 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 2,632 | 254 | 234 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 2,532 | 237 | 235 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 2,452 | 90 | 222 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 2,423 | 27 | 218 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 2,424 | 30 | 213 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 2,424 | 36 | 204 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,424 | 30 | 204 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,411 | 89 | 194 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,413 | 89 | 191 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,426 | 103 | 188 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,439 | 114 | 191 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 2,434 | 134 | 199 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 2,377 | 142 | 197 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 2,314 | 65 | 199 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,254 | 62 | 199 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,231 | 53 | 197 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 2,257 | 70 | 204 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 2,277 | 126 | 194 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 2,299 | 136 | 190 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 2,321 | 137 | 188 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 2,350 | 113 | 193 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 2,394 | 139 | 190 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 2,446 | 146 | 192 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 2,472 | 151 | 193 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 2,478 | 167 | 186 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 2,456 | 162 | 190 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 2,408 | 155 | 189 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 2,377 | 151 | 189 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 2,331 | 145 | 185 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 2,301 | 148 | 182 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 2,284 | 147 | 179 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 2,278 | 141 | 170 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 2,263 | 146 | 190 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 2,261 | 159 | 166 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 2,249 | 165 | 160 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 2,220 | 157 | 157 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 2,179 | 149 | 149 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 2,113 | 143 | 145 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 2,029 | 138 | 141 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,926 | 143 | 136 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,843 | 139 | 137 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 1,771 | 133 | 128 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: GEO has a large one-off gain of $184.3M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 30th June, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: GEO's current net profit margins (10.3%) are higher than last year (3.7%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: GEO's earnings have grown significantly by 20.9% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: GEO's earnings growth over the past year (225%) exceeds its 5-year average (20.9% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: GEO earnings growth over the past year (225%) exceeded the Commercial Services industry 12.7%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: GEO's Return on Equity (19.2%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/18 21:30 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The GEO Group, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Manav Patnaik | Barclays |
| Ryan Meliker | Canaccord Genuity |
| Tan Wei | Deutsche Bank |