Stock Analysis

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. (NYSE:CDAY) Shares Could Be 29% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

NYSE:DAY
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Key Insights

  • Ceridian HCM Holding's estimated fair value is US$92.13 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Ceridian HCM Holding's US$65.20 share price signals that it might be 29% undervalued
  • The US$76.31 analyst price target for CDAY is 17% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. (NYSE:CDAY) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for Ceridian HCM Holding

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$219.9m US$343.7m US$443.3m US$536.1m US$618.3m US$688.8m US$748.3m US$798.6m US$841.5m US$878.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x3 Est @ 28.98% Est @ 20.95% Est @ 15.33% Est @ 11.40% Est @ 8.64% Est @ 6.72% Est @ 5.37% Est @ 4.42%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8% US$206 US$301 US$364 US$412 US$445 US$464 US$472 US$472 US$465 US$455

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$879m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.8%– 2.2%) = US$20b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$20b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$10b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$65.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 29% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
NYSE:CDAY Discounted Cash Flow November 6th 2023

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ceridian HCM Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.917. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Ceridian HCM Holding

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • No major weaknesses identified for CDAY.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Ceridian HCM Holding, we've compiled three relevant elements you should look at:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Ceridian HCM Holding we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does CDAY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.