Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CWST) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to US$90.82 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$341m, in line with estimates, while Casella Waste Systems reported a statutory loss of US$0.07 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Casella Waste Systems

Following the latest results, Casella Waste Systems' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.50b in 2024. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 127% to US$0.69. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.50b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.73 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$104, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Casella Waste Systems at US$112 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$92.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that Casella Waste Systems is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Casella Waste Systems. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$104, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Casella Waste Systems going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Casella Waste Systems (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.