Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.2x Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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There hasn't been much to differentiate Automatic Data Processing's and the market's earnings growth lately. It might be that many expect the mediocre earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Automatic Data Processing

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Automatic Data Processing.

Is There Enough Growth For Automatic Data Processing?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Automatic Data Processing's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 9.7% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 43% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.7% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Automatic Data Processing's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Automatic Data Processing's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Automatic Data Processing with six simple checks.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.