At US$134, Is It Time To Put Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NYSE:SSD) On Your Watch List?

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (NYSE:SSD), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at Simpson Manufacturing’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Simpson Manufacturing

What's The Opportunity In Simpson Manufacturing?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Simpson Manufacturing’s ratio of 17.46x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 15.92x, which means if you buy Simpson Manufacturing today, you’d be paying a relatively sensible price for it. And if you believe that Simpson Manufacturing should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Simpson Manufacturing’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Simpson Manufacturing look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Simpson Manufacturing, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -6.1%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, SSD appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on SSD, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SSD for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on SSD should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, Simpson Manufacturing has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Simpson Manufacturing, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.