What’s Next for NuScale After Surging 198% and Announcing New Modular Reactor Project?

If you have been watching NuScale Power, you are probably wondering what comes next for this innovative energy stock. Whether you are holding after a massive rally or thinking about jumping in, it is not just hype driving talk around NuScale lately. Over the past year, the stock has surged an eye-catching 198.6%. If you zoom out even more, the three-year rise stands at 255.4%. Those kinds of numbers naturally grab attention, but they also raise an important question: does the stock still have room to run, or has most of the value already been realized?

Shorter-term movements add some intrigue here too. While NuScale’s 30-day return sits at a healthy 14.4%, the stock dipped by 2.2% in just the last week. Even so, when you look at the year-to-date performance—an astounding 121.6% gain—it is clear that momentum has been on NuScale’s side for a while. What is fueling all this? Part of the answer comes down to how markets are viewing the future of energy tech and what small modular reactors might mean for the industry. But, as investors, what really matters is valuation: has NuScale’s massive growth outpaced its actual worth?

Right now, based on six major valuation checks, NuScale Power only qualifies as undervalued in one of them, giving it a value score of 1. That is not a slam dunk, but the story does not end there. Let us break down what those valuation approaches are and, more importantly, why one number is rarely the whole story. There is a smarter way to look at value, and we will get to that before we are done.

NuScale Power scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: NuScale Power Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by extrapolating its future free cash flows and discounting those expected amounts back to today’s dollars. This method helps investors get a sense of what a business might actually be worth based on realistic growth and profitability assumptions rather than market hype.

For NuScale Power, the recent twelve months have seen a negative free cash flow of $96.9 Million, highlighting that the company is still investing heavily in growth. Analysts only provide projections for the next five years, and these still show negative free cash flow through 2028, but there is a turning point forecasted by 2029, with positive free cash flow projected at $15.25 Million. From there, further projections are extrapolated, showing steady estimates for increasing cash flows through 2035. All cash flows are measured in USD.

Despite these optimistic future estimates, the DCF analysis calculates an intrinsic value of $1.21 per share for NuScale Power. When compared to the current market price, this implies the stock is trading at a 3135.6% premium, making it dramatically overvalued according to this model.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NuScale Power.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests NuScale Power may be overvalued by 3135.6%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: NuScale Power Price vs Book

Price-to-Book (P/B) is typically a strong valuation metric for asset-heavy or early-stage companies that may not yet be profitable, since it compares market value to the company’s actual net assets. For businesses like NuScale Power that are still in growth mode and generating negative earnings, P/B can help investors gauge whether the stock is trading at a premium or discount to the value of its equity.

Investors normally approach P/B ratios by comparing them to the averages across the industry or among key peers, with the assumption that higher growth or greater profitability usually justifies a higher ratio. However, a "normal" or "fair" P/B ratio isn't set in stone. Expectations about NuScale’s future growth, as well as risks or lack of current profits, also feed into what investors are willing to pay relative to book value.

NuScale Power’s current Price-to-Book ratio stands at a steep 7.58x. This is considerably higher than both the industry average of 2.41x and the average of close peers, which sit at 18.93x. At first glance, this might suggest the stock is richly valued relative to its assets. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio provides additional context by considering not just industry averages, but also factors such as the company’s unique risks, long-term growth prospects, profit margins, and overall market size.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is designed to be a more tailored and realistic benchmark, especially for businesses with distinctive financial profiles like NuScale. Because it adjusts for company- and sector-specific nuances, it provides a deeper view than standard peer comparisons alone.

Comparing NuScale’s current P/B to its Fair Ratio shows the valuation is significantly above what fundamentals would suggest is fair. This means investors are currently paying a large premium over the company's net assets and adjusted risk profile.

Result: OVERVALUED

PB ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NuScale Power Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your story about a company, bringing together your views on what drives its business, your financial assumptions (like future revenues and margins), and the fair value you estimate as a result. Narratives bridge the gap between the numbers and what those numbers actually mean for a company's future, letting you define the reasons behind your forecast and track how those reasons might change.

Narratives are easy to use and available to everyone on Simply Wall St's Community page, where millions of investors share and compare their perspectives on companies like NuScale Power. They help you decide when to buy or sell by matching your fair value view with the current market price so you can spot opportunity or risk in real time. What is more, Narratives update dynamically when new information, such as news or earnings, hits the market so your view stays relevant and actionable.

For example, some investors believe NuScale’s unique partnerships and global demand will drive rapid revenue growth and set fair value above $41 per share. Others remain cautious, setting targets as low as $17 due to concerns over commercialization timelines and funding risks. Whichever side you fall on, Narratives put you in control of your own investment process, grounded in both data and your personal conviction.

Do you think there's more to the story for NuScale Power? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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