Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, PGT Innovations, Inc. (NYSE:PGTI) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for PGT Innovations
What Is PGT Innovations's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of July 2022 PGT Innovations had US$626.3m of debt, an increase on US$474.5m, over one year. However, it does have US$159.3m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$467.0m.
How Strong Is PGT Innovations' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, PGT Innovations had liabilities of US$190.0m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$755.9m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$159.3m as well as receivables valued at US$237.5m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$549.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because PGT Innovations is worth US$1.39b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
PGT Innovations has net debt worth 2.3 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 5.2 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Importantly, PGT Innovations grew its EBIT by 57% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine PGT Innovations's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, PGT Innovations recorded free cash flow worth 50% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
On our analysis PGT Innovations's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. Considering this range of data points, we think PGT Innovations is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with PGT Innovations , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:PGTI
PGT Innovations
PGT Innovations, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and supply of impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors in the United States and internationally.
Adequate balance sheet and fair value.