What Does Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s (NYSE:MWA) Share Price Indicate?

While Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Mueller Water Products’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products

Is Mueller Water Products Still Cheap?

According to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average, the stock currently looks expensive. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 26.59x is currently well-above the industry average of 20.75x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Mueller Water Products’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What does the future of Mueller Water Products look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. In the upcoming year, Mueller Water Products' earnings are expected to increase by 33%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in MWA’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe MWA should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on MWA for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for MWA, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you want to dive deeper into Mueller Water Products, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Mueller Water Products (1 is concerning) you should be familiar with.

If you are no longer interested in Mueller Water Products, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.