Is It Too Late to Consider MasTec After a 52% Rally in 2025?

• Wondering if MasTec is still a smart buy after such a big run, or if the value has already been priced in? You are not alone. This is exactly the kind of setup where valuation really matters.
• MasTec's share price has climbed 1.2% over the last week, 5.6% over the last month, and 52.1% year to date, adding to a 48.9% gain over the last year and 219.6% over five years.
• Behind those moves, investors have been focused on MasTec's role in large scale infrastructure, clean energy, and communications projects, which tend to come with multi year spending tailwinds. At the same time, shifting expectations around US infrastructure policy and long dated contracts have been reshaping how the market thinks about MasTec's long term growth runway and risk profile.
• Despite all that momentum, MasTec only scores 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks, which might surprise anyone assuming the rally is purely fundamentals driven. Next we will unpack what that score really means using different valuation approaches, and then circle back at the end with a more complete way to think about MasTec's worth.

MasTec scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: MasTec Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today in dollar terms. It is essentially asking what all of MasTec's expected future cash generation is worth right now.

MasTec generated about $435.8 million in free cash flow over the last twelve months. Analysts and model projections see that rising to roughly $1.07 billion by 2029, with interim years stepping up steadily as large infrastructure and energy projects convert into cash. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates further free cash flow growth to complete a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model.

Pulling those projections together, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $248.02 per share. That compares to the current market price and implies MasTec trades at roughly a 14.1% discount to its estimated fair value. This suggests the recent share price strength has not fully captured the projected cash flow growth.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests MasTec is undervalued by 14.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 927 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for MasTec.

Approach 2: MasTec Price vs Earnings

For a profitable business like MasTec, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to see what investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings. A higher PE usually signals stronger growth expectations or lower perceived risk, while a lower PE can reflect slower growth, more uncertainty, or simply a stock that has fallen out of favor.

MasTec currently trades on a PE of about 49.95x. That is well above the Construction industry average of roughly 33.31x and also higher than the peer group average of about 47.74x, which at first glance can make the shares look expensive. However, headline comparisons like these do not fully capture MasTec's specific growth profile, margins, and risk factors.

This is where Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio comes in. It is a proprietary estimate of what a more appropriate PE should be once you factor in MasTec's earnings growth outlook, profitability, industry, market cap and risk characteristics. For MasTec, the Fair Ratio is 39.65x, which is noticeably below the current 49.95x multiple. That gap suggests the market is paying a richer price than the fundamentals would justify on this framework.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1439 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your MasTec Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect the story you believe about MasTec with the numbers you think it can deliver, from future revenue and earnings to margins and ultimately fair value.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own structured viewpoint on a company, where you describe what you think will drive MasTec's business, translate that into a forward looking financial forecast, and then see what fair value that story implies.

This makes Narratives especially powerful for decisions, because you can compare your fair value to MasTec's current share price to decide whether it looks like a buy, a hold, or a sell, and then keep that view up to date as the facts change.

Available on the Community page and used by millions of investors, Narratives are updated dynamically whenever new data arrives. For example, a bullish MasTec Narrative expecting sustained double digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and a fair value near the high end of recent analyst targets can sit right alongside a more cautious view that assumes slower project conversion, tighter margins, and a fair value closer to the bottom of the range. This gives you a clear, side by side sense of how different perspectives lead to different valuations.

Do you think there's more to the story for MasTec? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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