Lockheed Martin (LMT): Revisiting Valuation After a Recent Grind Higher in the Share Price

Lockheed Martin (LMT) has been grinding higher in recent sessions, and with the stock up roughly 1% over the past week and modestly positive over the past month, investors are revisiting its long term setup.

See our latest analysis for Lockheed Martin.

Zooming out, Lockheed Martin’s share price has been treading water this year, with a slightly negative year to date move. Its five year total shareholder return of 54.92% shows the longer term defense story is still intact and has gradually rewarded patient holders.

If Lockheed’s steady defense profile appeals to you, it could be worth exploring other aerospace and defense stocks that might offer different growth and risk trade offs in the same space.

With earnings still growing, a modest pullback this year, and shares trading below analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, is Lockheed Martin quietly undervalued at this point, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.1% Undervalued

With Lockheed Martin last closing at $474.79 against a narrative fair value near $528, the valuation view leans supportive of further upside potential.

Lockheed Martin's technological leadership in areas like stealth, electronic warfare, hypersonics, and integrated air/missile defense systems is being validated by operational success and customer priorities, supporting future contract wins and an expanding addressable market, which should lift revenues and provide opportunities for higher margin, next generation products. The growing focus on homeland defense initiatives such as "Golden Dome," missile warning networks, and increased munitions spending suggests future secular increases in U.S. defense budgets and multi year, high value contract awards that are likely to contribute meaningfully to backlog, revenue visibility, and cash flow stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of steady revenue build, margin recovery path, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value line? The narrative leans on measured growth, disciplined profitability, and a valuation multiple more conservative than many sector peers. Curious how those moving parts combine to justify a premium to today’s price without assuming explosive expansion? Dive into the full story to uncover the specific forecasts driving this call.

Result: Fair Value of $528.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant fixed price program overruns and shifting U.S. defense budget priorities could compress margins and derail the current undervaluation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Lockheed Martin narrative.

Build Your Own Lockheed Martin Narrative

If you see the setup differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fresh, data driven view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lockheed Martin research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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