Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Valuation Check After Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings and Analyst Caution

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) just posted mixed third quarter 2025 results, and the stock reaction captures that tension. Revenue inched up around 2%, but headline earnings fell sharply even as adjusted profit surprised to the upside.

See our latest analysis for Illinois Tool Works.

At around $249.38 per share, Illinois Tool Works has slipped on a 1 day share price return while its 1 year total shareholder return is in negative territory, suggesting momentum has cooled even though the 3 year total shareholder return remains solid.

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With earnings quality looking better than the headlines, a modest discount to analyst targets, and a hefty implied intrinsic discount, should investors treat Illinois Tool Works as undervalued or assume the market is already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.5% Undervalued

The most followed narrative pegs Illinois Tool Works’ fair value just above today’s $249.38 share price, framing its premium as a bet on steady, compounding quality.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $258.906 for Illinois Tool Works based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $290.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $215.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest growth, stable margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine into this valuation story, and what assumptions really power that math? Dive in.

Result: Fair Value of $261 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer organic growth and pressure in key segments like construction and Test and Measurement could quickly challenge today’s quietly optimistic valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Illinois Tool Works narrative.

Build Your Own Illinois Tool Works Narrative

If you would rather challenge these assumptions or dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Illinois Tool Works research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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