Stock Analysis

Optimism around Hayward Holdings (NYSE:HAYW) delivering new earnings growth may be shrinking as stock declines 5.6% this past week

NYSE:HAYW
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Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Unfortunately the Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HAYW) share price slid 33% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 0.8%. Because Hayward Holdings hasn't been listed for many years, the market is still learning about how the business performs. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

After losing 5.6% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Hayward Holdings

SWOT Analysis for Hayward Holdings

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, Hayward Holdings had to report a 44% decline in EPS over the last year. This fall in the EPS is significantly worse than the 33% the share price fall. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:HAYW Earnings Per Share Growth June 2nd 2023

It is of course excellent to see how Hayward Holdings has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

Given that the market gained 0.8% in the last year, Hayward Holdings shareholders might be miffed that they lost 33%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. With the stock down 13% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Hayward Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

We will like Hayward Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Hayward Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.