Earnings Beat: Hayward Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HAYW) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.6% to US$14.13. Revenues were US$213m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.05, an impressive 41% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Hayward Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hayward Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.04b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 22% to US$0.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.46 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$15.48, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Hayward Holdings analyst has a price target of US$17.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$14.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hayward Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Hayward Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.7% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 8.6% annual decline over the past three years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.3% annually. So while Hayward Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.48, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hayward Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Hayward Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.